Political Earthquake in Manchester as By-Election Campaign Begins
Political by-elections typically deliver their dramatic shocks in the early hours, within the stale atmosphere of a sports hall counting venue. The contest for the Manchester seat of Gorton and Denton, however, has already produced two seismic political tremors before the campaign has properly begun.
Starmer's Decisive Move Against Burnham
The first major development came with the news that Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester and former Labour Cabinet Minister, intended to defend the seat for his party. This was swiftly followed by an even more significant intervention from Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who moved decisively to block Burnham's candidacy over the weekend.
Westminster observers believe Sir Keir recognised that Burnham's return to the House of Commons would represent the initial step in a potential leadership challenge, with the ultimate goal of securing the keys to Number Ten Downing Street. By preventing Burnham from appearing on the ballot paper, the Prime Minister may have temporarily avoided a direct leadership contest. However, this strategic move has simultaneously thrown the race to become the next MP for Gorton and Denton wide open.
A Transformed Three-Way Contest
Political analysts now identify three frontrunners in what has become an unexpectedly competitive contest. Television presenter Matt Goodwin is standing for Reform UK, while two other candidates remain unknown as their parties have yet to complete their selection processes. Crucially, all major parties now acknowledge that this will evolve into a genuine three-way battle between Reform, Labour, and a suddenly resurgent Green Party.
The Green Party has discovered, within a constituency boasting a substantial Muslim population, that there may be more electoral advantage in criticising Israel than in promoting traditional environmental policies. During conversations with supporters across the political spectrum this week, a consensus emerged that Burnham's enforced absence has significantly simplified matters for Labour's principal rivals in this historically Labour stronghold.
The Scandal That Triggered the Vote
This by-election was precipitated by the sudden resignation of former health minister Andrew Gwynne, who cited 'health grounds' when stepping down last week. His political career had already suffered irreparable damage following the revelation of abusive remarks circulated on a WhatsApp group, exposed by The Mail on Sunday a year earlier.
Among these comments was a crude response to a constituent regarding bin collections and an offensive remark suggesting a psychologist sounded 'too Jewish', accompanied by the question: 'Is he in Mossad?' These revelations proved particularly damaging eight months later when a terrorist attack on Manchester's Heaton Park synagogue resulted in three fatalities.
The Muslim Vote and Green Party Resurgence
In the Gorton segment of the former constituency, Muslim voters constitute more than seventy percent of the electorate in certain council wards. This demographic reality has created a fascinating political dynamic that could severely undermine Labour's traditional dominance here.
This week, The Muslim Vote, a coalition of Muslim organisations, explicitly urged its followers to support the Green Party in the forthcoming by-election. The coalition indicated it would have backed Labour had Andy Burnham been standing, but has now shifted its allegiance. Their statement declared: 'We believe the Green Party offers the strongest opportunity to win and we urge them to work swiftly with local communities.'
This endorsement is clearly shaping the Greens' campaign strategy in a seat where polling suggests they could secure their fifth MP and their first parliamentary representative in the North of England.
Green Rally Focuses on International Issues
Attending the Green Party's major rally to launch their by-election campaign this week provided revealing insights into their strategy. The location—Gorton's Pakistan Community Centre—was strategically chosen. Party leader Zack Polanski received a boisterous welcome and earned a standing ovation for a surprisingly brief five-minute speech.
His address attacked Reform as 'racist' and Labour as 'the party that wants to lick the boots of Donald Trump.' The loudest cheers erupted during his condemnation of Israel: 'When we look around the world, we know that our Government is complicit—active participants in the selling of arms to Israel and the sharing of intelligence. And it is time to end the genocide.'
Former leader Baroness Bennett echoed similar sentiments during her introductions. Notably absent from the evening's discourse were the traditional Green Party staples of Net Zero, climate change, and carbon emissions. There was passing mention of sewage issues, but the focus remained firmly on international affairs and economic inequality.
Shifting Voter Allegiances on the Ground
Walking through Gorton reveals genuine and widespread support for the Green Party among former Labour voters. Driving instructor Abdul Hakim, thirty-seven, explained: 'We always used to vote Labour but not after the Government's double standards on Palestine. They do nothing for the people here... only the Greens say it as it is.'
He emphasised the collective nature of voting decisions within his community: 'We're Asian. We vote as an extended family so that means twenty votes for Green.'
The latest polling places Reform just ahead of Labour, with the Greens in third position, though bookmakers favour Reform narrowly ahead of the Green Party, with Labour trailing in third. To prevent a Reform victory, there will need to be significant consolidation among left-leaning voters, with current momentum favouring the Greens.
Candidate Selection Could Prove Decisive
Much will depend on whom the Green Party selects as their candidate when the local party votes today. Should they choose a stereotypical 'blue-haired graduate eco-warrior,' they may struggle to connect with the broader electorate. However, one contender for the Green nomination presents a very different profile that could challenge Nigel Farage's political style.
Fesl Reza-Khan is a former Parachute Regiment soldier who runs his own finance company. His grandfather fought for Britain during the Second World War, and he stood out as the only attendee at the rally wearing a blazer. As co-chair of the Muslim Greens, he represents an articulate, softly-spoken alternative within the party.
'I just despair of the labels and the abuse in public life now,' he explained. 'I hate the way Muslims are demonised, just as I don't believe that all Reform voters are bad people either. We need politics to be more civilised.' His candidacy represents a potentially significant development in this contest.
A Constituency of Contrasting Halves
Gorton and Denton represents a constituency of two distinct halves. The Denton end remains largely what would be described as traditional white working class, historically built around the hat industry. Locals claim the phrase 'mad as a hatter' originated here, derived from the mind-altering effects of mercury used in historical hat production.
The outgoing MP previously enjoyed support in this area. Lauren Hill, owner of Denton's Red Lion pub, acknowledged: 'He was quite a good MP actually. He did a competition for small business and we won it three times. But then the WhatsApp thing happened.'
Wayne Bennett, a retired maintenance man sitting at the bar, added: 'He was nice enough—he bought one of my puppies, actually.' When asked if he would vote for Mr Gwynne's replacement, he responded unequivocally: 'Oh no. It's Reform all the way.' He has already formally signed up as a party member.
Reform's Candidate Presents His Case
Across the road, Reform UK unveiled their candidate, Matt Goodwin, during a tightly controlled press conference at The Vault pub. The forty-four-year-old is an experienced media performer, having presented on GB News while previously working as an academic, author, and political commentator.
He gained notoriety for eating a page of his own book live on air after promising to 'eat his words' if Jeremy Corbyn polled more than thirty-eight percent in the 2017 General Election—Corbyn achieved forty percent. His supporters argue this demonstrates his commitment to following through on promises.
Labour's research team quickly circulated past comments, including one where Goodwin remarked: 'I was unfortunate enough to be in Manchester a few days ago.' Reform's representatives were equally swift in responding, reporting Labour to the police for alleged 'dissemination of false statements.' Goodwin clarified that the comment referred specifically to a Conservative conference being held in the city, not to Manchester itself.
He highlights strong family connections to the area, including a grandfather who worked in a nearby steel factory, and familiarity with the southern part of the constituency from his student days delivering pizzas in Burnage.
'Historically, this is a safe Labour seat but tribal allegiances are dead,' Goodwin stated. He characterises the contest as 'a referendum on Starmer' and identifies immigration as a paramount issue. Acknowledging that opponents will highlight past comments—including his remark after last year's Huntingdon train stabbings that 'it takes more than a piece of paper to make somebody "British"'—he insists he opposes 'sectarianism.'
'Minority ethnic communities have expressed just as much outrage as white working class voters about broken borders because they all play by the rules,' he argued. 'And the worst is when you hear Keir talking about fairness in a system that is so obviously unfair and biased towards rule-breakers.'
Labour's Challenge in a Changing Landscape
In Denton, Reform expects its strongest support, and street conversations suggest this assessment may be accurate. Claire, a forty-nine-year-old civil servant and mother of two walking her dog, identified two key issues that will determine her vote: what she describes as the disastrous management of local Tameside Council by Labour, and immigration. Both she and her husband intend to support Reform.
Labour's most promising territory appears to be in Burnage, the area where Oasis brothers Liam and Noel Gallagher grew up. This is hardly a pocket of deprivation—a Range Rover sits outside a property two doors down from the Gallagher family's former semi-detached home. The neighbourhood takes pride in its musical connection, with a substantial mural of the brothers located around the corner from Burnage station.
Property developer Sarah, who typically votes Conservative, indicated she would probably support Labour 'just to keep Reform out.' However, such tactical voting appears to be the exception rather than the rule in this transformed political landscape.
Looking Back with Anger
The most famous Oasis lyric, 'Don't look back in anger,' may offer little comfort to Sir Keir Starmer as this by-election campaign intensifies. Current indications suggest that most voters heading to the polls on February 26 will indeed be looking back with considerable anger—directed at the political establishment, traditional party loyalties, and a system many perceive as having failed them. The outcome in Gorton and Denton will provide crucial insights into the shifting tectonic plates of British politics.
