The Liberals have claimed victory in a key Victorian byelection seen as a preview of what to expect when the rest of the state hits the polls in November.
Anthony Marsh Leads in Nepean
As counting continued in the Mornington Peninsula seat of Nepean, Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh appeared to be in a commanding position, providing a significant boost to opposition leader Jess Wilson. With close to 80% of the vote counted, Marsh had secured 38.5% of the primary vote and 63.4% on a two-candidate basis.
However, the Victorian Electoral Commission initially ran the two-candidate vote as a race between the Liberals and independent candidate Tracee Hutchison. Hutchison was in second place early in the count but later slipped behind One Nation's Darren Hercus, who garnered 24.7% of the primary vote to Hutchison's 21.3%.
Marsh's Victory Speech
In a speech to supporters, Marsh expressed his gratitude, stating, "I am so glad I could bring it home for you tonight. This is the honour of my life to be standing here as the next member for Nepean." He added, "I will be on the ground each and every single day fighting for the people of Nepean as we lead into one of the most important state elections that we have seen."
Wilson's Response and Labor's Absence
Welcoming the result, Wilson acknowledged that the party still had more work to do before the November poll. Labor opted not to field a candidate in the byelection, and while the Liberals retained Nepean, the party suffered a swing of nearly 10% against it on the primary vote.
Saturday's byelection was triggered by the sudden resignation of Victorian Liberal deputy leader Sam Groth. The party has held the seat since its inception, except for a four-year period when it fell to Labor.
Candidate Controversies and Voter Sentiment
Marsh was forced to admit he did not live in the electorate and therefore could not vote for himself on Saturday, but he noted that he had been mayor in the area three times over the past five years. Hercus told reporters it was a tight race with a mixed response from voters fed up with empty promises. "We have had a few Liberal voters come over to us due to frustrations they have been feeling with their own party," he said.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson campaigned alongside Hercus but was absent on polling day. Hercus remarked, "People will vote for her rather than me." Before the count, Hutchison told reporters that many voters were seeking an alternative, as the area had been overlooked and let down by the major parties for decades. "I am putting myself forward as someone who is of this place, who cares deeply about this place," she said.
Implications for the State Election
The strong showing by One Nation backs up national polling and the South Australian election result, and could bode poorly for the Liberals in the Victorian state election, according to Benjamin Moffitt, senior politics lecturer at Monash University. "If they even do somewhat well in Nepean, that is a real problem for the Liberal party," Moffitt said.
The electorate encompasses wealthy postcodes such as Sorrento, Portsea, and Flinders, as well as low socioeconomic areas like Capel Sound, formerly known as Rosebud West. The Mornington Peninsula is officially part of metropolitan Melbourne but lacks comparable services, with public transport and a planned revamp of Rosebud Hospital among key issues for locals.
