The Victorian Liberal Party has declared victory in the Nepean by-election, a contest widely regarded as a bellwether for the upcoming state election in November. Candidate Anthony Marsh celebrated alongside state Liberal leader Jess Wilson on Saturday evening.
Marsh's Campaign and Victory
'I have stood by Anthony for weeks, I worked alongside him for months on this by-election campaign, and he had worked tirelessly every single day to listen to the residents down here on the peninsula,' Wilson said. 'He and his wife, Nat, are raising their young family on the peninsula. They are invested in the future, and I know how passionate he is about fighting for residents down here on the peninsula.'
With just under 22 per cent of primary votes counted around 7.30pm on Saturday, Marsh led on 36.6 per cent. He was followed by community independent Tracee Hutchison on 23.8 per cent and One Nation's Darren Hercus on 21.2 per cent. On a two-candidate preferred basis, Marsh secured 55.4 per cent against Hutchison's 44.6 per cent. The Labor Party opted not to field a candidate in this by-election.
Background of the By-Election
The by-election was triggered by the sudden resignation of Victorian Liberal deputy leader Sam Groth in January. The Liberal Party has held the seat since its inception, except for a four-year period when it fell to Labor. Marsh acknowledged he does not live in the electorate and was therefore unable to vote for himself, but noted he has served as mayor in the area three times over the past five years.
One Nation and Independent Challenges
Hercus told reporters it was a tight race with a mixed response from voters frustrated by empty promises. 'We've had a few Liberal voters come over to us for frustrations they've been feeling with their own party,' he said. One Nation leader Pauline Hanson campaigned alongside Hercus but was absent on polling day. 'People will vote for her rather than me,' Hercus remarked.
Hutchison said many voters were seeking an alternative, as the area had been overlooked and let down by major parties for decades. 'I am putting myself forward as someone who is of this place, who cares deeply about this place,' she stated.
Implications for State Election
A strong One Nation showing could bolster national polling and the South Australian election result, and bode ill for the Liberals in the Victorian state election, said senior politics lecturer at Monash University, Dr Benjamin Moffitt. 'If they even do somewhat well in Nepean, that's a real problem for the Liberal Party,' he explained.
Victoria's Opposition Leader Jess Wilson acknowledged the by-election's significance for her prospects of becoming the next premier. 'We don't take anything for granted,' she said. 'We're the only party down here who are campaigning to deliver the Rosebud Hospital, to fix the roads, to put more cops on the beat down here.'
Total voter enrolment at the close of rolls was 50,910. The electorate encompasses wealthy postcodes such as Sorrento, Portsea, and Flinders, as well as lower socio-economic areas like Capel Sound, formerly Rosebud West. The Mornington Peninsula is officially part of metropolitan Melbourne but lacks comparable services, with public transport and a planned revamp of Rosebud Hospital among key local issues.
