The Liberal Party's decision to preference One Nation above Labor in the South Australian election has resulted in the right-wing populist party winning multiple seats, analysts say. One Nation is projected to secure at least two seats in the upper house and at least one, likely more, in the lower house, with votes still being counted.
Emeritus Professor Clem McIntyre of the University of Adelaide stated that One Nation's seats will be won on Liberal preferences. He noted that in each case, Labor or Liberal comes third, and if the Liberals fall below Labor, their preferences flow to One Nation, providing them with parliamentary credibility and attention they would not otherwise have gained.
Electoral analyst Ben Raue agreed that Liberal preferences helped One Nation win seats like Ngadjuri and could assist in Hammond and MacKillop. He added that if Labor's primary vote had been five points lower, One Nation could have been competitive in more seats.
This strategy marks a departure from the John Howard era, when both major parties acted against the populist party. Dr Rob Manwaring of Flinders University noted that the Liberals' assumptions that preferencing One Nation would help them have not turned out as expected. Liberal leader Ashton Hurn defended the decision as a vote of no confidence in the government, not a vote of confidence in One Nation, and said the party would review its preferences after the election.
Labor won the election with a thumping majority, securing 37.8% of the primary vote, while One Nation had 22.4% and the Liberals 19.2%. The final seat count remains pending, but Labor is projected to hold 32 seats, the Liberals four, with two independents and one for One Nation.
