Labour faces a significant challenge in London, with the Green Party and Reform UK making gains at its expense. In Camden, home to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's constituency, the Greens hope to capitalise on a collapse in Labour support. Polling suggests Labour's vote share in London has fallen 15 points since 2024, while the Greens have risen 10 points and Reform UK six points.
On the Highgate New Town estate, resident Cynthia Boampong told Green candidate Lorna Jane Russell she had always voted Labour but now wanted change, citing local issues like a lack of food recycling bins and a leaking boiler. Russell, a former Labour councillor, said the Greens benefit from grassroots work on housing maintenance and wider issues like Gaza, but stressed that day-to-day problems often matter most to voters.
Labour activists report being confronted with Starmer's unpopularity on doorsteps, with one describing the attitude as sometimes 'visceral'. The party holds 45 of Camden's 55 seats but faces a challenge from the Greens, Liberal Democrats and independents. A uniform swing of 19% would cost Labour its majority, though the race is highly unpredictable with five parties fielding full slates.
The Greens are expected to surge across inner London, with Hackney tipped for a progressive realignment and Labour strongholds like Lambeth and Lewisham under threat. Labour is on course for its lowest ever vote share in London, worse than Harold Wilson's 28.3% in 1968. The Conservatives, while also facing tough results, could retake Wandsworth and make gains in Westminster.
London's 59 Labour MPs include several cabinet ministers, but the local elections suggest their safe majorities may be at risk. The Lib Dems appear to be the only traditional party avoiding the mainstream's fate, while Reform UK's rise in outer London adds to Labour's woes.
