Labour is projected to finish in third place in both the upcoming Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd elections next month, according to new detailed polling analysis. The research by More in Common indicates significant losses for Keir Starmer's party, deepening his political crisis as Labour faces a dramatic decline in its traditional strongholds.
Scottish Parliament Projections
An MRP (Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification) model, based on polling of more than 5,000 Scottish voters, reveals Labour will slump to just 17 seats at Holyrood. This represents a substantial setback for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who had high hopes after winning power in July 2024 that Labour could triumph in this year's Scottish Parliament elections.
The model shows the SNP remaining as the largest party at Holyrood with 56 projected seats, despite being squeezed by other parties and falling short of a majority. This outcome would likely make the SNP reliant on support from the Scottish Greens, who are projected to win 8 seats, to form a government.
Reform UK's Surge in Scotland
Perhaps most strikingly, the polling indicates Reform UK are set to win 22 seats at Holyrood, putting Nigel Farage's party ahead of Labour, the Liberal Democrats (14 seats) and the Conservatives (12 seats). This represents a seismic shift in Scottish politics and suggests Reform has made significant inroads in what was traditionally Labour territory.
Welsh Senedd Forecast
A separate MRP model by More in Common, based on polling of more than 2,500 Welsh voters, shows Plaid Cymru will be the largest party in the Welsh Senedd next month. This would end Labour's 27-year period of government in Wales and mark the country's first non-Labour first minister since devolution began in 1999.
Plaid are projected to win 30 seats, with Reform close behind with 28 seats - meaning they are set to form the official opposition in the Welsh Senedd. Labour would be reduced to just 24 seats, placing them third behind both Plaid and Reform.
Coalition Challenges in Wales
Despite Plaid's projected victory, the nationalist party is set to fall 19 seats short of the 49 seats needed to form a majority in the Welsh Senedd. The MRP model suggests a Plaid-Labour coalition could be the only viable route to forming a government in Cardiff, though this would require cooperation between parties with different constitutional visions for Wales.
The model also found the Greens are likely to win their first seats in the Welsh Senedd, with Zack Polanski's party picking up four seats. The Conservatives could end up with just seven seats, while the Lib Dems will win three seats, according to the research.
Political Landscape Transformed
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, commented on the dramatic changes revealed by the polling. 'Looking at Wales today, it's hard to believe that the 2024 general election was less than two years ago,' he said. 'The political map has changed so dramatically since Labour won decisively in Wales.'
'Plaid Cymru are the clear beneficiaries of a country ready for change, and could be on course to lead a Welsh Government for the first time,' Tryl added. 'But it may be a tricky start - potentially requiring sharing power with a weakened Labour Party that, despite its losses, could still wield considerable influence over the shape of any coalition.'
Tryl also noted that More in Common's polling showed Reform have 'firmly displaced the Conservatives as the party of the Welsh Right.' Regarding Scotland, he added that the MRP model showed the balance of power at Holyrood 'on a knife edge between a pro-independence and pro-unionist majority.'
The elections on 7 May now appear set to deliver historic changes to the political landscapes of both Scotland and Wales, with Labour facing unprecedented challenges in regions where it once dominated. The projected results suggest significant realignments are underway in British politics, with Reform UK emerging as a major force and nationalist parties gaining ground at Labour's expense.
