Labour Braces for Major Councillor Losses in May's Local Elections
Labour could be on track to lose nearly 2,000 councillors in the upcoming council elections this May, according to a stark warning from leading political experts. Sir Keir Starmer's party may shed more than three in five of its councillors who are standing for re-election, as forecast by prominent analysts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher.
Dire Predictions for Starmer's Leadership
Their analysis suggests that if the pattern of local by-elections since last May continues, the Prime Minister is likely to lose well over 1,000 councillors. A loss of this magnitude would represent a significant danger for Sir Keir Starmer, who has long been predicted to face a potential leadership challenge if the elections deliver a poor result for Labour.
The Conservative Party is also expected to face considerable difficulties in postponed county council elections, while substantial gains for Reform UK are deemed inevitable by the experts. On May 7, voters across 136 councils will go to the polls to decide the fate of 5,013 contested seats. Labour is defending a dominant 2,557 of these seats, with the Conservatives protecting 1,362, the Liberal Democrats 684, and independents and others accounting for 410.
Labour's Vulnerabilities and Reform's Rise
In a detailed analysis for the Local Government Chronicle, Mr Rallings and Mr Thrasher highlight that Labour will be hit particularly hard in May. The party will be battling Reform UK in northern metropolitan councils, while the Conservatives are vulnerable in county councils and some outer London boroughs.
Their prediction follows Reform UK's impressive performance in last year's local elections, where the party won nearly 700 seats from a standing start, as the Conservatives lost two-thirds of the seats they were defending. This year, Labour is firmly in the spotlight as it defends more than half of the 5,013 seats falling vacant across the 136 councils.
That dominance reflects Labour's strength in London and the metropolitan boroughs, where it currently controls no fewer than 44 of the 64 councils with elections. A repeat of last year's trends could see Labour losing well over 1,000 councillors. Indeed, the party has retained just a quarter of the seats being defended at local by-elections since last May, suffering an average decline of 25 percent in vote share. A hit of that magnitude would push the party's losses closer to the 2,000 mark.
Multiple Fronts of Political Pressure
Labour is facing a tough fight with Reform UK in metropolitan boroughs including Barnsley, Sandwell, Sunderland, and Wakefield. Additionally, the party is likely to sustain a double-pronged attack from its left in London from the Greens and pro-Gaza independents. Several councillors have defected from Labour to the Greens in recent months in places like Brent, Lewisham, and Southwark.
There and in north-east boroughs like Hackney, Islington, and Newham, Green gains may be expected. The experts noted that Labour's approach to the Middle East ate into Labour support at the 2024 general election and is likely to hurt the party again in these local contests.
Conservative Challenges and Reform's Momentum
The pair said that if Reform UK performs as well as it did last year, it would be likely to take control of Essex county council and become a significant presence in others. The Conservatives, meanwhile, face particular jeopardy in some seats and could lose seats to Reform. Kemi Badenoch's party fared badly in last year's local elections, losing two-thirds of the seats and overall control of the councils they were defending.
Meanwhile, Reform won nearly 700 seats from a standing start and secured a majority in 10 councils. The Conservatives hold little more than a quarter of the overall vacancies but face particular jeopardy in the county contests postponed from 2025. It may be that support for Reform has plateaued, but given it won only three seats four years ago, substantial gains from such a low base are inevitable.
