A new MRP poll by YouGov, commissioned by ITV, suggests that Labour could be shut out of government in Wales for the first time since devolution in 1999. The survey projects Plaid Cymru as the largest party with 43 seats, followed by Reform UK on 30, Labour on 12, the Greens on 10, the Conservatives on one, and the Liberal Democrats on zero.
The result would be a major blow to Sir Keir Starmer, with Labour's vote share collapsing to 13%, a drop of 23 points. Current First Minister Eluned Morgan is among those projected to lose her seat. The election will be held on 7 May under a new proportional representation system, which replaces constituencies with regional lists.
Zack Polanski, the Green Party leader, said his party aims to replace Labour as the main left-wing force. On the projected outcome, he said: 'Right now we're just focused on winning as many votes as possible so that Reform is kept out. We want Greens to have the strongest possible voice for Wales.'
Dr Jac Larner of Cardiff University noted that the poll shows a 'near-supermajority for progressive parties' in the Senedd. He added: 'The Greens will be encouraged that they have maintained a strong position, building on their success in England, and their rise does not appear to have come at Plaid Cymru's expense.'
The survey, based on data from nearly 3,000 Welsh adults collected between 9 and 18 March, suggests that Plaid Cymru could form a progressive government with the Greens, bypassing Labour. A similar left-wing tactical voting pattern was observed in recent Welsh by-elections.
