Labour Faces Historic Exclusion from Welsh Government as Poll Reveals Dramatic Shift
A devastating new poll has indicated that Labour could be squeezed out of government in Wales for the first time since devolution began in 1999, dealing a major blow to Sir Keir Starmer's leadership. The MRP poll for YouGov suggests a seismic realignment in Welsh politics, with Plaid Cymru projected to become the largest party with 43 seats, followed by Nigel Farage's Reform UK in second place with 30 seats.
Projected Seat Collapse for Labour and Conservative Wipeout
With the crucial election taking place on 7 May, Labour is set to see its vote share collapse by 23 percent to just 13 percent, according to the poll. This would leave them with a projected 12 seats, a dramatic fall from their historical dominance. Among the casualties in this damaging result would be the party's current First Minister of Wales, Eluned Morgan, highlighting the personal and political stakes involved.
The projections also show both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats potentially being wiped out altogether in Wales, with the Conservatives on course for just one seat and the Lib Dems zero. This underscores the polarising nature of the current political climate in Wales, where traditional parties are losing ground to newer or more ideologically distinct movements.
Greens Poised for Historic Breakthrough in Welsh Senedd
Meanwhile, Zack Polanski's Green Party is expected to make a significant breakthrough, winning 10 seats and entering the Welsh Senedd for the first time ever. This development means that Plaid Cymru would have a choice of left-wing partners in the Principality and could form a progressive Welsh government with the Greens instead of Labour, fundamentally altering the political landscape.
Mr Polanski has previously told The Independent that his aim is to replace Labour as the main party of the left in England and Wales. He has left the door open for a deal with Plaid Cymru, stating: "Right now we're just focused on winning as many votes as possible so that Reform is kept out. We are in a position to act on our plans for Wales - to tackle the cost of living, fix the housing crisis and improve NHS care. We want Greens to have the strongest possible voice for Wales."
Electoral System Changes and Tactical Voting Trends
Both the Greens and Reform will be boosted by a new electoral system in Wales, with regions now decided by proportional representation and an end to constituencies. This shift has already been reflected in recent by-elections. The projected result mirrors the Senedd by-election for Caerphilly in October last year, where Labour collapsed to third place with votes transferring to Plaid to stop Reform from winning the seat.
Similarly, in Gorton and Denton last month, the Greens were the beneficiaries of tactical voting on the left, pushing Labour into third place with Reform again in second. These patterns suggest a growing trend of voters abandoning traditional allegiances in favour of more targeted support for parties perceived as either progressive alternatives or protest vehicles against the status quo.
Expert Analysis and Broader Implications for Starmer's Leadership
Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University's Welsh Governance Centre, told ITV: "The poll also suggests that the race for third place is now firmly between Labour and the Greens. Labour's position has improved marginally since January, supported by improving underlying evaluations of UK Government performance and a modest recovery in ratings for Keir Starmer from their historic January low."
He added: "The Greens will be encouraged that they have maintained a strong position in Wales, building on their success in England. Notably, their rise does not appear to have come at Plaid Cymru's expense, suggesting the two parties are drawing support from largely separate pools of voters. The results also point clearly to a near-supermajority for progressive parties in the Senedd."
With Sir Keir Starmer's position as Prime Minister in doubt amid suggestions of a leadership challenge after the elections on 7 May, a collapse in Wales could seal his fate. Wales has been a heartland for Labour, and the party has always been in government there since 1999, either as the majority or largest party. Losing this stronghold would represent not just a regional setback but a national crisis for Labour's identity and strategy.
The MRP poll by YouGov was commissioned by ITV and uses data from nearly 3,000 Welsh adults in fieldwork from 9 to 18 March. As the election date approaches, these findings will likely intensify campaigning and strategic calculations across all parties, setting the stage for a potentially historic realignment in Welsh and UK politics.
