With just one day to go until Scots head to the polls on May 7, the 2026 Holyrood election remains wide open, according to pollsters. Around one in five voters are still undecided, and these could have an 'outsized impact' on the final result, particularly in many highly marginal constituencies.
The SNP is projected to remain the largest party, with John Swinney the firm favourite to be sworn in as First Minister for a second term. However, the Nationalists' ambition to win a majority of MSPs is in a 'precarious' position. As many as 15 constituency races could be decided by margins of under five percentage points, and nine of those by under three points.
Polling firm More in Common, which surveyed more than 4,000 Scots between March 3 and April 26, said the SNP are projected to win 60 seats but are within five percentage points of victory in five more constituencies. Winning these would bring the party to 65 – enough for a majority. But there are also 10 constituencies the SNP currently wins with a margin of less than five points; losing these would give the SNP their worst result since 2007 and could make even a coalition with the Green Party unfeasible.
Focus groups reveal widespread lack of enthusiasm, with many voters describing the election as a 'highly difficult decision'. One voter from Rutherglen said: 'I'll probably just vote SNP to be honest, because if you vote for someone else, they might just make things worse.' Another, from Edinburgh, added: 'There's no great choice in any of the politicians just now.' Fatigue with the SNP after 19 years in power is evident, but support for pro-Union parties is split among four parties, making it difficult for any to take power. As More in Common puts it: 'Even if three in five voters back Unionist parties, a nationalist majority appears to be a likely outcome.'
The largest proportion of Scots (33 per cent) say an SNP majority would be a good outcome, but this would be highly polarising, with 68 per cent of anti-independence Scots calling it a bad result. The campaign has been dubbed the 'meh' election due to the distinct lack of enthusiasm, and fear of low turnout is real among the major parties.
