Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali is the overwhelming favourite to win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election on Thursday October 8, with bookmakers pricing her at 1-33. Green Party leader Zack Polanski is next at 12-1, while George Galloway is rated between 100-1 and 200-1 but could still influence the outcome. Reform UK, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are at long odds.
Why the Greens are gambling on the seat
At the 2024 general election, Labour won the seat with a majority of 11,572. Sir Keir Starmer gained 18,884 votes, with the Greens far behind in third place on 4,030. At first glance, Mr Polanski has little chance.
However, independent candidate Andrew Feinstein got 7,312 votes just over two years ago. He has urged his previous backers to support Mr Polanski, which, if the vast majority do, could boost his chances of a strong challenge to Labour and possibly even victory.
Polling and the Galloway factor
Polls suggest Labour may have lost around a quarter of its vote in London during Sir Keir’s premiership, highlighted by the Green Party’s success at the May local elections. Mr Polanski previously listed a string of London seats he would contest, including Holborn and St Pancras, if there was a vacancy.
But Labour has risen in the polls since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister in the summer. A new MRP poll by YouGov suggested the Greens would win no MPs in London if there was a general election tomorrow, with Labour holding onto 51 of the 59 seats it currently has in the capital.
Mr Polanski’s hopes have also almost certainly been dented by George Galloway’s decision to enter the contest, which could split the Left-leaning, anti-Labour vote.
Ground war and the final verdict
The Green leader has sought to blitz the constituency with hundreds of activists in a mass campaigning operation every day up to polling day. Labour chiefs, though, believe they are outnumbering the Greens on the ground, that some people are returning to the party and that some Tory and Liberal Democrat supporters are considering backing Ms Abdi-Wali, leader of Camden Council, in an anti-Polanski vote.
His campaign has also been rocked by Green members voting to declare Zionism as racism at their party conference in Brighton. If Mr Polanski loses, all eyes will be on the size of Labour’s majority. If he trails by a few thousand, he could argue he may fare better in Hackney or Lewisham at the next general election, but if he loses heavily, questions will inevitably grow about his leadership.
