Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali is the 1-10 favourite to win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election on October 8, according to bookmakers, with Green Party leader Zack Polanski at 6-1 and George Galloway between 66-1 and 100-1.
Hundreds of Green Party and Labour activists are campaigning in the north London constituency. Reform UK, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are at long odds.
Green gamble explained by numbers
At the 2024 general election, Labour won the seat with a majority of 11,572. Sir Keir Starmer gained 18,884 votes, with the Greens third on 4,030.
Independent candidate Andrew Feinstein got 7,312 votes just over two years ago. He has urged his previous backers to support Mr Polanski, which could boost the Green leader’s chances of a strong challenge to Labour.
Momentum and obstacles
Polls suggest Labour may have lost around a quarter of its vote in London during Sir Keir’s premiership, highlighted by the Green Party’s success at the May local elections in the capital. Labour has risen in the polls since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister in the summer, with some voters returning from the Green Party to Labour.
Mr Polanski’s hopes have been dented by George Galloway’s entry into the contest, which could split the Left-leaning, anti-Labour vote. The Green leader is seeking to blitz the constituency with hundreds of activists daily until polling day, with members urged to skip the Greens’ conference in Brighton.
Labour chiefs believe they are outnumbering the Greens on the ground, that some people are returning to the party, and that some Tory and Liberal Democrat supporters may back Ms Abdi-Wali, leader of Camden Council, in an anti-Polanski vote.
