Kamala Harris Maintains Lead in Early 2028 Democratic Primary Polling
While California Governor Gavin Newsom has emerged as a prominent voice opposing former President Donald Trump, his fellow Californian, former Vice President Kamala Harris, continues to hold the position as the Democratic Party's most recognizable figure. According to a February poll conducted by The Daily Mail and JL Partners, Harris remains the frontrunner when likely Democratic primary voters were asked to select their preferred candidate for the 2028 presidential nomination.
Polling Numbers Reveal a Competitive Field
The survey results show Harris receiving support from 23 percent of likely Democratic primary voters. California Governor Gavin Newsom follows closely behind with 19 percent, indicating a competitive dynamic between the two high-profile Californians. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who previously served as mayor of South Bend, Indiana and was a 2020 presidential candidate, secured third place with 10 percent support.
Another 10 percent of Democratic voters expressed uncertainty about their preference, highlighting the fluid nature of the early race. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the progressive favorite, garnered 7 percent support, placing her in the middle of the potential candidate field.
Additional Candidates Register Support
Several other prominent Democrats attracted measurable support in the polling. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker—who previously ran for president in 2020—each received 5 percent of likely primary voters' support.
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker followed with 4 percent, while Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer registered 3 percent. Harris's 2024 running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear—who has emphasized his electability in a traditionally Republican state—both received 2 percent support. All other potential Democratic hopefuls polled at 1 percent or less.
Harris's Popularity and Challenges
Despite her leading position, Harris's support has shown concerning signs of erosion. The poll revealed that her support among likely Democratic primary voters has declined from 36 percent to 23 percent over a one-month period. During this same timeframe, both Buttigieg and Newsom gained four percentage points each, suggesting momentum may be shifting toward other candidates.
Harris remains highly popular within her own party, with 86 percent of Democrats expressing a favorable view of the former vice president who lost the 2024 election to Donald Trump. However, some political analysts suggest that her current 2028 support may be partially built on name recognition from her previous presidential bid rather than sustained enthusiasm.
Favorability Ratings Across the Electorate
When considering all voters—not just Democrats—Harris faces significant challenges. Among all respondents, 47 percent held a favorable view of Harris, while 44 percent viewed her unfavorably. Notably, 32 percent of voters viewed Harris very unfavorably, the highest such rating among all Democratic figures surveyed.
After Harris, both Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gavin Newsom each had a quarter of voters rating them very unfavorably, likely reflecting their high national profiles and polarizing positions within the political landscape.
Newsom's Recent Controversy
Governor Newsom recently faced criticism after discussing his dyslexia during an event in Atlanta where many Black supporters were present. "I'm not trying to impress you. I'm just trying to impress upon you I'm like you. I'm no better than you. I'm a 960 SAT guy... I can't read," the California governor told the crowd.
Republican Senator Tim Scott, who is Black, responded by stating, "Black Americans aren't your low bar." Newsom's office defended the governor, noting that he has openly discussed his struggles with dyslexia for years and addresses the topic extensively in his recent memoir.
The Daily Mail's poll found that 34 percent of Black voters said Newsom is not like them, while 26 percent said the California governor is like them. About 22 percent were unsure how to answer the question, and another 18 percent said they weren't familiar with Newsom.
Overall Popularity and Unknown Candidates
Progressive Senator Bernie Sanders, who ran for president in 2016 and 2020, received the highest net favorability rating of any Democrat among all voters, despite 23 percent viewing him very unfavorably. At 84 years old, Sanders is considered very unlikely to mount another White House bid, leaving the progressive wing of the party looking toward younger figures like 36-year-old Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro received the most favorable numbers among potential 2028 hopefuls, with 32 percent of respondents viewing him favorably and 22 percent viewing him unfavorably. However, the poll indicates he remains relatively unknown to many voters, with 28 percent saying they have no opinion of the Pennsylvania governor and another 18 percent saying they've never heard of him.
The poll was conducted from February 25 to 27, sampling 1,095 registered voters online. The survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent. With candidates unlikely to officially announce their 2028 campaigns for approximately another year, these early indicators suggest a dynamic and evolving Democratic primary landscape.
