Labour MPs had feared a Green party victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election, and their worst fears were realised as the Greens secured a convincing win. The result gives the left-wing party its best by-election performance and its first northern seat, with candidate Hannah Spencer winning a majority of 4,402 votes over Reform UK.
The victory sends a clear signal to progressive voters that they do not have to vote Labour to beat Reform, a development that could prove catastrophic for the government in its heartlands. Pollster Luke Tryl noted that Labour's argument that the threat of Reform would bring disillusioned progressive voters back into the fold has now collapsed.
Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University said the result highlighted how two pillars of Labour’s traditional support—white working-class voters and ethnic minorities—had deserted the party. The Greens now have five Westminster MPs, with this seat located 120 miles from their next closest seat, demonstrating the party's ability to win outside its southern cluster.
The Green party vote share of 41% is four times larger than their previous best by-election result. Officials from both parties noted a shift among Muslim voters, many citing Sir Keir Starmer’s positions on Gaza as a reason for leaving Labour. Spencer targeted Muslim voters with a campaign including Urdu-language videos.
Labour’s distant third place is likely to reignite questions about Starmer’s leadership and renew criticism from the party’s left. The result follows a similar loss last year in the Welsh Senedd seat of Caerphilly, where Plaid Cymru ended over a century of Labour dominance. Some Labour MPs said blocking Andy Burnham from running may have cost them votes.
