France's Local Elections: A Setback for Far-Right Ahead of 2027 Presidential Vote
The ballot comes 13 months before the next presidential elections in April and May 2027, providing a crucial test of political currents in a fragmented landscape. France's far-right National Rally (RN) failed to win control of any major city in Sunday's local elections, a significant setback that has injected hope into embattled mainstream parties ahead of next year's presidential election to replace centrist Emmanuel Macron.
While the results of local contests do not always offer a reliable preview of national elections, the vote tested the depth of the far right's support base and the resilience of mainstream parties in a highly fragmented political landscape. Here are five key takeaways from the ballot, which arrives just over a year before the next presidential elections in April and May 2027.
The RN’s March to Power Is Not Unstoppable
Marseille is no bellwether for France as a whole, yet the far right's failure to capture the country's second-largest city, coupled with defeat in nearby Toulon, has punctured the sense of an unstoppable National Rally (RN) advance towards power in 2027. The dominant assumption heading into the presidential race has been that RN leader Jordan Bardella stood as the clear favourite after two unpopular mandates under President Emmanuel Macron weakened the centrist camp.
The local results complicate that picture considerably. They suggest that mainstream parties, when organised and united, can still effectively block the RN, particularly in large cities where the party's brand remains toxic for many voters. However, the RN's advances have not stalled everywhere. In fiercely conservative Nice, RN ally Eric Ciotti defeated a Macron-backed candidate. The party also picked up smaller cities such as Carcassonne and multiplied its number of councillors thirteen-fold.
Bottom line for 2027: the RN remains the frontrunner on paper, but the sense of inevitability has weakened, and its ceiling in big cities still looks very real and limiting.
The Centre Beats Low Expectations - And May Unite
The centrist camp performed better than expected despite Macron's personal unpopularity weighing heavily on the political scene. Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe held Le Havre, defying polls and reinforcing his status as the centrist best placed to take on the RN in the 2027 presidential contest. Macronist candidates also notched unexpected victories in Bordeaux and Annecy, and gained influence through strategic alliances in Toulouse, Angers and Limoges.
The picture remains mixed, however. Macron-backed candidates suffered losses in Lyon, Nice and Pau, where former Prime Minister François Bayrou was unseated in a notable defeat. Bottom line for 2027: Philippe has emerged as the centre's most credible contender, but without unity behind him the bloc still risks missing the crucial second round entirely.
Alliances with LFI Remain a Liability for the Left
The elections sent a clear signal to the mainstream left: it performs significantly better without the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI). LFI has been weighed down by controversy, from the fallout of the killing of a far-right activist in Lyon to renewed accusations of antisemitism linked to remarks by Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
In Paris, Socialist Emmanuel Grégoire won after refusing a deal with LFI. In Marseille, Socialist Benoît Payan defeated the RN while keeping his distance from LFI, whose candidate withdrew from the race. By contrast, Socialist-LFI alliances were defeated in cities including Toulouse, Limoges and Clermont-Ferrand. LFI still scored symbolic victories in Saint-Denis and Roubaix, showing it retains a mobilised base, but one with limited reach and influence.
Bottom line for 2027: the left is heading toward a strategic reckoning, with the presidential race likely to pit two competing visions of the left against each other in a divisive internal battle.
Lyon Belies Fading Green Momentum
The Greens, who surged to power in major cities in 2020, failed to repeat that success in these local elections. After a severe cost-of-living crisis and geopolitical instability, environmental issues appear to have slipped down voters' priority lists considerably. Green mayors lost in Strasbourg, Bordeaux and Poitiers, marking significant setbacks.
In Lyon, the outgoing Green mayor narrowly held on, highlighting how fragile the party's urban strongholds have become in the current political climate. Bottom line for 2027: the Greens' retreat reflects a backlash against priorities and messaging that struggled to resonate beyond their core base, raising serious doubts about their leverage and influence in the 2027 presidential contest.
The Conservatives’ Local Strength Has Limits
The conservative Republicans (LR) failed to conquer Paris, a symbolic defeat widely attributed to the polarising profile of candidate Rachida Dati and her looming corruption case. Elsewhere, the party stressed its resilience, remaining France's biggest local force with a strong network of support.
Bottom line for 2027: the Republicans retain a solid electoral base, but they still need to decide whether they prefer to be a well-supported minority or whether they should unite with the centre to take on extreme parties on the left and right effectively.
