Andy Burnham's decisive victory in the Makerfield byelection has intensified calls for Keir Starmer to step aside as Labour leader, with allies of the Greater Manchester mayor hoping he can be installed in No 10 within days. Burnham won the seat with a majority of 9,231, nearly double that of his predecessor, securing 54% of the vote and finishing about 20 percentage points ahead of Reform UK.
Speaking before polls closed, a Downing Street source acknowledged rare doubts about the prime minister's future, stating that Starmer would 'fight on' but that this might depend on the size of the majority. After the result, Louise Haigh, the Labour MP who helped run Burnham's campaign, said she hoped Starmer would consider an orderly and managed transition, noting that the party is in an existential crisis.
Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, called Burnham the 'only Labour politician in the country that could have pulled off that result', describing it as an 'emphatic win' and an 'astonishing share of the votes'. Burnham himself said the result shows how to beat hate and division, and that the country must be put back on the right path.
The byelection was seen as a test of whether Labour could take on Reform UK in its most promising seats. Of the 90 seats where Reform finished second to Labour in 2024, Makerfield was the seventh closest. At local elections in the constituency, Reform won more than half the vote, with Labour on 23%. Burnham's victory, however, saw him gain comfortably more votes than Reform and Restore Britain combined.
Attention now turns to Westminster, with Burnham's allies saying he has the support of more than the 81 MPs needed to trigger a leadership contest. They hope ministers will persuade Starmer to agree to an orderly transition, avoiding a divisive contest. Polls suggest Labour would be about six percentage points better off with Burnham as leader, though even his allies accept he would face the same policy dilemmas.
Joe Twyman of Deltapoll said the 'phoney war' of the Labour leadership contest is now over, but warned that longer-term perceptions would depend on whether voters see improvement in their lives. Starmer posted a brief congratulations on social media, saying voters chose Labour's campaign of hope over division and hate.
