Local elections this May are shaping up to be an unusually negative contest, driven by a clash of animosities: some voters want to punish Labour, while others are determined to keep Reform UK out of power. Analysts say tactical voting based on opposition, rather than support for a party, is becoming more common.
Polling by More in Common found that 38% of Britons would vote against Reform, up nine points since November last year, making it the most unpopular party. Labour was at 34%, down four points, with Conservatives and Greens at 7% each. The Lib Dems were at 3%.
Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, said: “It’s rare to hear so much discussion about tactical voting among the public. Across the country more and more people are describing their vote in terms of who they want to stop rather than who they want to win.” He noted progressive voters often seek the best “stop Reform” choice, while others back the “punish Labour” option.
Professor Tony Travers of the London School of Economics suggested the “anyone but” sentiment does not apply universally. In inner cities, Labour is vulnerable to Greens or the Workers Party, while Reform could capitalise where its support is concentrated.
Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, said voters are sending a clear message to legacy parties. “We really don’t like you. We’re not going to vote for you,” he told the Guardian’s Politics Weekly podcast, adding that the ultimate impact on the next general election remains uncertain.
In the 2024 general election, Labour and the Conservatives together won just 57% of votes, the lowest on record, as the electoral system fragmented. The May elections will see more than 5,000 councillors and six mayors elected in England, alongside Scottish and Welsh contests.
