Political historian Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted nine of the last 11 US presidential winners, forecasts a double defeat for Donald Trump's Republicans in Tuesday's midterm elections. The American University professor believes Democrats will take control of both chambers of Congress, giving them a more than 90% chance of winning the House of Representatives and a narrower victory in the Senate.
Lichtman, who also predicted Kamala Harris would beat Trump in 2024, told The Times that the Republicans' slim House majority means Democrats have little ground to make up on November 3. 'Democrats need so few seats to take the majority. I give it over a 90% chance,' he said.
Senate outlook and key races
The Senate is a tougher prospect, though Lichtman still gives Democrats a 67% chance of seizing control. His most likely result is a 51-49 Democratic majority, reversing the Republicans' current 53-47 advantage over the Democratic caucus, which would require a net gain of four seats.
He expects Democrats to flip Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas while holding onto Michigan. Alaska could go to Democrat Mary Peltola, with other traditionally Republican states producing competitive contests, including South Carolina, Kansas and Iowa.
'It's amazing that Democrats are competitive in South Carolina, which Trump won by 18 points,' he said. 'Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since the Great Depression in 1932 and yet that's a neck-and-neck race, as is Iowa.'
Polls and voter enthusiasm
Lichtman bases his assessment partly on national polls asking Americans whether they prefer a Democrat or Republican to represent them in Congress. Democrats are ahead by seven to 11 percentage points, figures he trusts more than polls of individual races. He also sees signs that Democratic voters are more motivated to turn out, with early voting looking encouraging.
'Usually Republicans turn out at a higher rate but this time it looks like the Democratic enthusiasm is higher,' he said.
Presidential approval ratings and historical precedent
Trump's approval ratings are another factor. Lichtman argues that previous presidents with similarly low ratings offer an unpleasant precedent. 'When the approval rating for a president is as low as Trump's, on average The White House party loses 40 House and six Senate seats,' he said. 'It's not a prediction, that's just showing how heavily the winds are blowing against Republicans.'
He compared the climate to the 1966 midterms, when Democrats suffered massive losses under President Lyndon Johnson, with the Vietnam War and unrest at home as the backdrop.
Lichtman believes Democrats could win more decisively if wealthy donors weren't pouring money into Republican campaigns. Singling out billionaires including Elon Musk, he said: 'It would be a huge Democratic sweep if not for the intervention of the billionaires.'
His earlier forecasts include backing Al Gore in 2000, who won the national popular vote but lost the Electoral College and presidency to George W Bush. Lichtman defended his approach: 'I'm not psychic… with a crystal ball. My system is based on history.'
Even by his own assessment, the number of competitive Senate races would once have seemed far-fetched. 'If you had told me the map would look like this eight months ago, I would have said you were nuts.'
