Coalition Parties Opt to Preference One Nation in Farrer Byelection
The Liberal and National parties have announced they will preference One Nation candidate David Farley ahead of independent Michelle Milthorpe in the upcoming Farrer byelection on 9 May. This strategic move could significantly impact the race, as preferences are expected to play a decisive role in the four-cornered contest.
Preference Decisions Shape the Political Landscape
According to a mock how-to-vote card published on Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski's campaign website, the Liberals will place the Nationals' Brad Robertson second, followed by David Farley in fourth position and Michelle Milthorpe in ninth. The Greens' Richard Hendrie is listed last at twelfth place. In a reciprocal arrangement, the Nationals will preference the Liberals first before also directing supporters to number Farley ahead of Milthorpe.
Nationals leader Matt Canavan justified the decision on Facebook, stating the party would preference One Nation over the "teal-backed candidate because she is backed by people that support net zero and water buybacks." Milthorpe's campaign receives support from the Climate 200 fundraising vehicle, though she has actively distanced herself from the urban teal independent movement.
Independent Candidate Questions Coalition Strategy
Speaking to media before the Liberal how-to-vote card was released, Michelle Milthorpe expressed bewilderment at the Coalition's preference strategy. "I find it fascinating that the Liberal party would choose to preference a party that seemingly wants to take them out," Milthorpe remarked. "If that's what they think they need to do, they've got to think about what that means for their future."
Milthorpe is recontesting Farrer after reducing former MP Sussan Ley's margin to 6.2% at the 2025 election. The byelection was triggered by Ley's retirement following her loss in the Liberal party leadership contest to Angus Taylor in February.
One Nation's Rising Influence and Recent Controversies
This byelection marks the first federal electoral test for Pauline Hanson since One Nation began climbing in the polls midway through last year. However, the Coalition has recently intensified political attacks against One Nation, highlighting the party's decision to rehire convicted rapist Sean Black as a campaign manager. Hanson subsequently dismissed Black, condemning the Coalition's scrutiny as "gutter politics."
Despite these controversies, recent polling indicates a slight decline in support for One Nation, sparking speculation that the right-wing party's surge may have plateaued. Commenting on Sky News, Matt Canavan remained cautious, stating, "I'm not popping any champagne corks about that. This is a long road, and these are pretty minor changes, so, we've just got to keep at it."
Implications for the Byelection Outcome
With Milthorpe and Farley viewed as the frontrunners in the four-cornered contest, the flow of preferences from the Liberal and National parties could prove crucial in determining the final result in the southern New South Wales seat. The Coalition's decision to preference One Nation represents a significant blow to Milthorpe's campaign, potentially altering the dynamics of the race as voters prepare to cast their ballots on 9 May.
