The scale of the Coalition's loss in the Farrer byelection cannot be overstated, as One Nation secured its first lower house seat in its own right after 30 years of trying. Businessman David Farley won the seat, breaking a 70-year hold by the Liberals and Nationals in the New South Wales electorate. The result has been described as a thumping victory for Pauline Hanson's populist movement, underlining the weakening foundations of Australia's two-party system.
Opposition leader Angus Taylor appeared poorly prepared for the devastating loss on Saturday night. Despite the Nationals and Liberals both running candidates and struggling to reach a combined 20% of the primary vote, Taylor tried to cast unity as a virtue. He stood by the decision to preference One Nation ahead of independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe, even as Hanson celebrated her party's success nearby.
The win harnesses grievances over the economy, immigration, and a broad dislike of the political class, with One Nation now set to be a force at the 2028 federal election. Former Liberal MP Sussan Ley, who held the seat before retiring, issued a statement warning against misunderstanding the defeat's magnitude. She recalled that on the day of the leadership spill in February, the new leader said the Liberal party needed to 'change or die'—a statement she said is even truer now.
Despite Farley splitting with Hanson on immigration policy during the campaign, National Barnaby Joyce was sent to clean up the mess, insisting the candidate's comments were just campaign pressure. History suggests Hanson often falls out with strong-willed men in her party, and Farley's tenure may be uncertain. Regardless, every seat One Nation wins from the Coalition makes Labor's grip on government more secure.
