Andy Burnham is weighing whether to call a snap general election or stick with his current parliamentary majority and inherited manifesto. Speculation about an early vote has grown in Westminster over the past fortnight, with the next election scheduled for August 2029 at the latest.
Signals and Preparation
Kemi Badenoch, who has acknowledged enjoying poker, is preparing her party for a possible early election. She assembled her new Shadow Cabinet for a central London away day on Thursday to discuss election planning. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has repeatedly insisted there will be an early election and is convinced it will happen next Spring. Bookmakers have also shortened odds on 2027 being the year of the next vote.
One Westminster observer noted that Burnham's maiden speech as Prime Minister on July 20 gave a clue when he said he would unveil his 10-year plan later in the year. "That very much sounded to me like a kind of manifesto launch to me. Him saying: 'This is where I want to take the country, now do you back it'. The fact that it's a 10-year plan, ie two parliamentary terms, was a giveaway," the observer said.
Political Calculations
Others point to Burnham trying to keep or win back Red Wall voters who Labour could lose to Reform. "Just look at the messages he's been putting out so far. I'm a Northern MP, I care about the North, Number 10 North - policies [like the £2 bus fare cap] that appeal to voters in northern red wall constituencies. You can see what he's doing," a Labour veteran said.
Burnham's Commons appearances have raised eyebrows, not just for his jet black Captain Scarlet ones. "He's the complete opposite to Keir. He's got the Labour backbenchers largely onside and that's because he needs them," the Labour figure added. "Not only to get stuff done but if he's going to take them into an election battle then they'll only want to do it if they believe he's the person who can lead them to a resounding victory."
The Prime Minister's stance over Israel, which triggered a backlash this week, is also seen as evidence of gearing up to "go early." "In the short term he timed the Israel sanctions announcement partly to help with the Holborn and St Pancras [Sir Keir's former seat] by-election," one senior Tory said. "But they [Labour backbenchers] loved it, it galvanised them. If he decides to go early then that support will help him."
Numbers and Risks
If Burnham decides to twist, he needs to look at the numbers. Polls currently show Labour on around 24% with Reform on 23%, the Conservatives on 20%, the Greens on 13% and the Lib Dems on 11%. Burnham may never be more popular than he is now, especially with a grim-looking Budget coming on October 28.
Another parliamentary source said: "Ok, he's still got a stonking majority, so why would he want to jeopardise that two years before he has to. But he has no manifesto of his own and this is likely to be the zenith of his popularity. You can see what he's trying to do. Make Labour more Labour again but also trying to appeal to some Lib Dem flip-floppers and the Greens. If he can squeeze 4 or 5% of votes out of those two then it would put Labour in a much stronger position and the temptation to call a general election would be very tempting indeed."
Problems engulfing Reform UK have not gone away and could worsen for Farage's party. Support has remained steady, albeit lower than last year's peak. Should it dip further, Burnham could be emboldened to strike sooner. A resurgent Badenoch could also play into his thinking, as the longer he leaves it, the stronger she is likely to get, especially if Reform continues its downward trend. During his first two PMQs, Burnham has not mentioned Reform from the despatch box, unlike his predecessor, while repeatedly targeting the Tories, clearly regarding them as his main rivals if he decides to twist.
