The ambitious Gaza recovery plan championed by Donald Trump’s Board of Peace has been drastically scaled down from a full-scale reconstruction to a small pilot project in the south of the strip. The plan now envisions a temporary camp for a tiny fraction of Gaza’s two million displaced people, overseen by a Palestinian administration, local police and a small international security force. However, even this modest scheme is not expected to materialise before the end of the year.
Incremental steps have been announced, including the arrival of a handful of Moroccan and Kosovan officers in Israel to form the kernel of an International Stabilization Force (ISF). A logistical base for the ISF is nearing completion at the Kerem Shalom crossing. Yet preparatory work on the pilot camp near Rafah has not begun, and satellite imagery shows only disturbed earth. Substantial progress is unlikely before Israel’s elections on 27 October, which could topple Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition.
Israel has repeatedly violated the Trump-brokered ceasefire since October, blocking reconstruction and limiting humanitarian aid. Western diplomats believe a new Israeli government offers the best hope for progress, but it remains unclear whether any successor coalition would be more flexible. One diplomat argued the Board of Peace had to keep the project alive to prevent extreme factions from pursuing wholesale population transfer or colonisation.
There is growing concern that Netanyahu, facing electoral defeat, may launch a new all-out offensive in Gaza before the vote. Since the ceasefire, Israeli strikes have killed more than 1,100 Palestinians, and Israeli forces now occupy over 60% of the territory, having advanced beyond the ceasefire line. A return to full-scale war would likely dismantle even the scaled-back pilot plan.
Muhammad Shehada of the European Council on Foreign Relations warned the project could become a propaganda tool, describing it as a “caged and controlled Potemkin village” designed to lend credibility to Israel’s escalating campaign. Israeli officials argue a return to war is inevitable because Hamas has refused to disarm, though Hamas has indicated willingness under certain conditions. Recent talks in Cairo on disarmament mechanisms made little progress as Israeli airstrikes and territorial advances continue.
