All eyes will be on Alaska this Friday for a peace summit aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin set to meet. However, Ukraine itself has not been invited, despite parts of its territory being occupied by Russian forces.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that Russia is not preparing to end the conflict but rather making movements that indicate preparations for new offensive operations. Days before the summit, he admitted that Russian groups had advanced about 10km in several places as part of their bid to seize full control of the Donetsk region.
According to Dan Sabbagh, the Guardian's defence editor reporting from Kyiv, Russia has been building up its industrial capability, manufacturing about 100 Shahed drones a day and ramping up missile production, especially Iskander ballistic missiles which are very hard for Ukraine to intercept. Attacks have intensified, including all-night drone raids, with one major attack involving about 700 drones near a Ukrainian airbase in Lutsk.
Russia slightly dialled down attacks on urban centres after complaints by the US, but that changed this week. On the frontlines, small raiding parties of 30 to 50 troops have broken through a few kilometres from Donetsk, a move Sabbagh says is psychological: to make Americans and negotiators think Ukraine is in trouble ahead of the high-profile summit.
Last year, Ukrainian forces staged a surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region, but by spring Russia had repelled it. That came after a row between Trump and Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, which led the US to briefly withhold intelligence sharing and pause weapons shipments, allowing Russia to gain territory and Ukraine to lose momentum and a potential bargaining chip.
