Federal authorities are investigating whether George Santos, the disgraced former Republican congressman from New York, engaged in insider trading by betting on a prediction market that he would attend Donald Trump's State of the Union address, according to multiple reports.
The investigation, first reported by NPR citing anonymous sources, centres on a wager placed on the online platform Kalshi. Santos had publicly stated he planned to attend the speech in February, before claiming travel problems prevented him from doing so. Kalshi flagged the trade to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates such markets.
The Department of Justice has also been looking into the matter, multiple outlets reported, citing unnamed sources. Neither the DoJ nor the CFTC responded to requests for comment. Santos, when asked by NPR whether he had a Kalshi account, said: “I'm not saying yes. I'm not saying no.” He later dismissed the reports on social media, writing: “Business as usual on my end haters!”
The investigation comes amid growing scrutiny of prediction markets over insider trading concerns. In April, Kalshi fined three congressional candidates for betting on their own races. Separately, a US soldier involved in the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro was taken into custody over bets he made on Polymarket about the deposed leader.
Santos served briefly in the House of Representatives before being expelled in December 2023 after an ethics report found he had used campaign funds for personal expenses. In April 2025 he was sentenced to seven years in prison for wire fraud and identity theft, but his sentence was later commuted by President Trump.
