Iran has presented a seven-day timetable to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin talks on its nuclear programme, a proposal that could quickly pull Donald Trump out of a political crisis but demands difficult concessions from the US president.
With five days left before the strait's proposed reopening, which is expected to ease pressure on global energy markets, Trump would need to lift Iranian asset freezes, permit Iran to export its oil and order Benjamin Netanyahu to end Israel's attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, achieving a "ceasefire on all fronts".
Diplomatic groundwork
Iranian diplomats in New York said they believed a three-hour meeting earlier this week with US envoy Steve Witkoff, during which they outlined the seven-day plan, was productive, but they doubted the US would follow through.
Iran has taken the proposal to China for endorsement and ensured Oman, situated on the south side of the strait, was also on board.
Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi explained that the idea was to take the elements of the Iran-US memorandum of understanding (MoU) that Trump signed in June and repackage and accelerate the process, since Iran understood that Trump had come to hate the MoU.
"The conditions we have asked the US to meet is nothing new, nothing more than what was already in the Islamabad agreement, which was signed by the US president," Araghchi said. What is new is the speed.
Timetable and terms
In the first four to five days, the US would have to lift the naval blockade on Iran's oil ports, restore the waiver lifting sanctions on Iran's oil exports, end the war on all fronts and permit the release of some of Iran's frozen assets.
On the sixth day, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with ships using a new route designated by Oman and Iran. The next day, negotiations would start on the future of Iran's civil nuclear programme, including a protocol to allow UN nuclear inspectors back to examine Iran's damaged sites and the stockpile of highly enriched uranium. This would accelerate the start of nuclear talks from 60 days in the June agreement to seven.
From Trump's perspective, the strait would reopen before the midterm elections, a point in the political calendar that Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian says has never been a factor in Iranian thinking. Trump had claimed Iran was waiting until after the vote to offer a deal.
Scepticism and obstacles
Araghchi argued at a largely off-the-record briefing with reporters, at which Pezeshkian was also present, that Iran had every reason not to negotiate with the US. He admitted to being sceptical that Witkoff could deliver, recounting how he had twice held talks with the envoy, after which Witkoff described them as "productive and good", only for the US to bomb Iran the next day.
Other Iranian diplomats say Trump's willingness to rein in Netanyahu in Lebanon remains key. If he could do that, a deal would be feasible.
The deal is difficult for Trump to accept since the strait would reopen largely on Iran's terms, with the new route predominantly going through Iranian waters. Saudi Arabia is also concerned that the route deal is bilateral between Iran and Oman, not with the Gulf states as joint signatories.
Trump says he has a choice between the annihilation of Iran and engagement, but the real judgment is more prosaic: whether he is prepared to go back to war with Iran after the midterms, and if not, whether the US can squeeze the Iranian economy so hard that the leadership succumbs.
Pezeshkian admitted Iranians wanted the war to end and did not deny the economic pressure, but said the public had withstood sanctions for 45 years. He insisted Iran's decision-making machinery was functioning and claimed the supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was completely healthy, based on spending seven hours in his presence. He did not explain why Khamenei had not issued a voice recording, photograph or video as proof of life.
