Iran-Backed Militias Intensify Attacks Against US and Israeli Targets
Iran-backed militias across the Middle East are escalating their assaults on Israel, the United States, and allied forces. This surge in violence is a direct retaliation for the ongoing joint US-Israeli offensive targeting Tehran, as the conflict draws in new armed actors and threatens to spiral into broader regional chaos.
Iraq Emerges as Central Battleground in Proxy Confrontation
Iraq has become a key front in this new and often clandestine confrontation. Since the war began on Saturday, militias in Iraq have launched dozens of attacks, primarily targeting Israeli positions and US bases in Jordan and Iraq itself. In recent days, these groups have also struck at the infrastructure of Iranian-Kurdish opposition factions based in the self-governing Kurdish-dominated north of Iraq.
Israel and the US are actively working to degrade the capabilities of pro-Iranian militias in Iraq through airstrikes and special forces operations on the ground, according to analysts and former regional intelligence officials. Since the 2003 US-led invasion, Iraq has served as a proxy battleground between the US, its allies, and Iran. However, the country's current leadership has sought to avoid being drawn deeper into this escalating conflict.
Militia Recruitment and Command Structure
The militias are primarily recruited from Iraq's majority Shia community and operate under orders from senior officers within Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This command structure underscores Tehran's influence over these groups, which are part of a broader coalition of militant factions stretching from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean. Iran has invested decades in building this network to deter attacks on its own soil and project influence across the region.
Recent Attacks and Covert Operations
In a sign of the intensifying proxy war, several Iran-backed armed factions have claimed responsibility for attacks on the US base at Erbil airport in northern Iraq in recent days. Additionally, drones and missiles have been launched from sites in Iran's western desert at targets in Jordan, while militias in southern Iraq fired a missile into Kuwait. On Thursday, these groups issued a joint statement warning European countries against joining the conflict and threatening their forces and bases in Iraq and the surrounding region.
Iraq's state-run news agency reported that an attempt to launch missiles from Basra province in southern Iraq, intended for a neighbouring country, was thwarted. Security forces seized a mobile launch platform carrying two ready-to-fire missiles. Meanwhile, a spokesperson for Israel's military confirmed that drones had been launched from Iraq towards Israel, though not in significant numbers.
Targeted Strikes and Casualties
In what appears to be a clandestine counteroffensive, militia bases south of Baghdad and near the cities of Nasariya and Basra have come under attack from small "suicide drones." These strikes have reportedly killed 15 fighters, mostly from Kataib Hezbollah, the most powerful pro-Iran group based in Iraq. Michael Knights, an Iraq expert at Horizon Engage, noted that short-range drone systems used in Iraq could not have been flown from Israel, suggesting covert ground operations are underway.
On Thursday, Kataib Hezbollah announced that one of its commanders was killed in a strike in southern Iraq the previous day. Sources from the faction indicated that a vehicle near the group's main base was hit, initially killing two fighters, with the toll later rising to three, including the commander. The group's Jurf al-Nasr base has been repeatedly attacked since the weekend, and there are reports of large explosions at militia bases in Iraq's western Anbar province.
Unexplained Blasts and Intelligence Involvement
A series of unexplained explosions have immobilised Iraqi government radar systems that monitor air traffic through Iraqi airspace. Two former senior Israeli intelligence officials declined to comment on these incidents but acknowledged that the suggestion of involvement by Israel's intelligence services or special forces was "credible." A third official suggested US forces might also be involved.
Regional Dynamics and Proxy Calculations
Israel has launched a broad offensive in Lebanon after Hezbollah, a major Islamist movement with close ties to Iran, joined the conflict. Hezbollah has attacked Israel and launched a drone towards a UK base in Cyprus. However, the so-called "axis of resistance" has been weakened by successive Israeli offensives since Hamas's surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which triggered the recent series of wars.
Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen, both with close ties to Tehran, have so far remained on the sidelines of the current conflict. Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, explained that for these groups, survival is based on calculations not necessarily aligned with Iran's interests. Phillip Smyth, an independent analyst, suggested Tehran might be holding the Houthis "in reserve" or that their leaders are hedging their bets in case the Iranian regime collapses.
Potential Use of Ethnic Minorities as Proxies
In a further indication of the conflict's complexity, there are reports of attacks by an armed group affiliated with separatist movements among Iran's Arab community against IRGC targets in south-western Iran. A strike on an IRGC base in Ahwaz, near the Iraqi border, was claimed by a newly formed group calling itself the "Ahwaz Falcons." This highlights the potential use of proxies recruited from Iran's ethnic minorities to weaken the regime, as suggested by officials in Washington considering mobilising opposition Iranian Kurds for possible operations in Iran's north-west region.
