Progressive nationalist parties now hold power in Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast for the first time, presenting a challenge to the United Kingdom's overcentralised state. Plaid Cymru's historic win in Wales and the Scottish National Party's fifth successive triumph in Scotland mean pro-independence governments are set to rule across the devolved nations.
Plaid's victory is seismic, breaking the Labour Party's more than century-long grip on Welsh politics. Outgoing Labour First Minister Eluned Morgan lost her seat as progressive voters migrated en masse to the nationalist alternative, disillusioned with Sir Keir Starmer's premiership and Welsh Labour's failings in health and education. A vote for Plaid was also seen as the best way to stop Reform UK, which will now form the official opposition in the Senedd.
In Scotland, Anas Sarwar's gamble to distance Scottish Labour from Westminster backfired, with the party recording its worst result since devolution. The SNP cruised home despite its lowest constituency vote share since 2007, as progressive voters opted for the Scottish Greens and Reform UK picked up former Labour supporters. Both Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth and SNP leader John Swinney are likely to lead minority administrations.
Concerted pressure for independence referendums is unlikely for now, though a Farage-led government in Westminster could shift the dial. However, the clean sweep for nationalist parties will generate greater collaboration between them and a more combative stance toward Whitehall. Sir Keir Starmer's recent caution against being 'overly deferential' to devolved governments is no longer sustainable after this Labour meltdown.
Welsh politics enters new territory as Mr ap Iorwerth seeks to fight for a better deal on issues such as control of Wales's seabed and public transport funding. The fractious volatility of British politics indicates the UK needs a new settlement, and last week's results may help deliver one.
