Plaid Cymru’s historic victory in the Welsh Senedd elections, alongside the Scottish National Party’s fifth consecutive win in Scotland, marks a transformative moment in UK devolved politics. For the first time, pro-independence parties hold power in Edinburgh, Cardiff, and Belfast, where Sinn Féin won in 2022. This seismic shift challenges the overcentralised nature of the British state and sets the stage for a new, constitutionally contested era.
Labour’s Humiliation in Wales and Scotland
The elections left Scottish and Welsh Labour battered and humiliated. In Wales, Labour’s century-long grip on power was shattered as outgoing First Minister Eluned Morgan lost her seat. Anger at Sir Keir Starmer’s unpopular premiership and Welsh Labour’s failures in health and education drove progressive voters to Plaid Cymru. Many also saw a vote for Plaid as the best way to block Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which nonetheless became the official opposition in the Senedd.
In Scotland, Anas Sarwar’s gamble to call for Starmer’s resignation backfired, leading to Scottish Labour’s worst result since devolution. Progressives shifted to the Scottish Greens, while Reform gained ground in Labour’s former heartlands. The SNP cruised to victory despite its lowest constituency vote share since 2007.
Prospects for Independence and Collaboration
While immediate pressure for independence referendums is unlikely, the prospect of a Farage-led government in Westminster could shift public opinion. Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has ruled out a referendum in the next Welsh parliament, and both he and SNP leader John Swinney are expected to lead minority administrations. However, the clean sweep for nationalist parties will foster greater collaboration among them and a more combative stance toward Whitehall.
Sir Keir Starmer’s recent caution against being “overly deferential” to devolved governments, and Westminster’s use of post-Brexit powers to bypass Holyrood and the Senedd, now seem unsustainable after Labour’s meltdown. The politics of Wales, in particular, is entering uncharted territory as ap Iorwerth seeks to leverage his mandate for better deals on issues like control of Wales’s seabed and public transport funding.
A New Settlement for the UK
The fractious volatility of British politics underscores the need for a new constitutional settlement. Last week’s results may help deliver one, as the devolved nations demand greater autonomy and resources in an overcentralised state where London continues to dominate investment. The era of Labour dominance in Wales and Scotland is over, and the UK must adapt to a more pluralistic and contested political landscape.
