US intelligence officials have warned that Russia could attack NATO in the next few years, sparking fears of World War 3. New intelligence reports seen by the Wall Street Journal claim Moscow could carry out a limited assault on a member state to test the alliance, with options including a cyberattack or a small-scale land incursion.
Shift in Assessment
Previous assessments said Vladimir Putin would not provoke NATO, though this changed earlier this year as the Russian President faces increasing pressure to secure a victory over Ukraine. US officials now believe Putin could launch an attack during the war in order to split the alliance and are analysing whether he will ramp up aggression against European allies in the near term.
Possible Attack Scenarios
Sources said the options being considered include a cyberattack, dispatching unmarked armed groups to occupy territory, and an incursion on NATO's eastern flank. If the Russian President decides to opt for one of these, action could be taken by 2029, they added.
Allied Warnings
This comes after Lithuanian defence minister Robertas Kaunas warned that Russia is planning false flag attacks in Europe to end support for Ukraine. He said: "We are talking about a false flag operation, using a false Ukrainian drone. One of the goals is for NATO to waver and decrease to Ukraine. I can assure this will not happen."
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda also claimed in July that Russia was plotting an attack on the country's infrastructure.
Drone Threats
Putin could also be "ready to shoot down passenger jets in Europe" with his drones, a security expert said. After a runway was closed as a drone and a detonator were reportedly found near a Ukrainian plane at Leipzig Airport in Germany, Will Geddes told The Sun the event also posed a risk to commercial airports. He said: "The economic impact is significant as anybody would imagine, but [the drones] being used as a delivery device for malintent, it is a huge concern."
