Two countries on Nato’s eastern flank have warned that Russia is preparing a possible “provocation” in the Baltic states or Poland in an effort to test the cohesion of the western military alliance, according to intelligence sources.
Latvian intelligence said on Monday that it sees indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland, though it would be short of a full-scale attack. A senior political source from another Nato member made a similar statement, saying Vladimir Putin might test US support for the smallest member states, including Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk shared his concerns on Thursday night, stating that the situation is unstable and various types of escalation can be expected in the coming weeks and months. He said the group of directly exposed countries would prepare accordingly.
The warnings come as Ukraine’s campaign of long-range attacks near Moscow and St Petersburg puts pressure on the Kremlin. Western sources fear Russia could lash out if Putin feels under threat. Russia has previously engaged in sabotage and provocative activity since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including planting firebombs in DHL parcels in the UK, Poland and Germany in 2024.
A western military source acknowledged a period of danger as the war shifts to the skylines of Moscow and St Petersburg. Nato will hold its annual summit in Turkey this month amid uncertainty about US commitment to the alliance.
