The UK has warned it could seize a Russia-linked shadow fleet tanker, in what would mark a significant escalation against Moscow as its oil revenues decline. British defence sources confirmed that military options to capture a rogue vessel have been discussed with Nato allies, though no action has yet been taken since the US-led seizure of a Russian tanker in the Atlantic last month.
In January, 23 shadow fleet ships using false or fraudulent flags were spotted in the Channel or Baltic Sea, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence. Many are linked to the export of Russian oil, primarily to China, India and Turkey. A joint statement signed by the UK, Germany, France and other Nato countries bordering the Baltic and North seas late last month called for vessels to comply with international law, but no seizures have followed.
Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd's List, said the Royal Navy could challenge stateless ships under maritime law but has not done so due to escalatory risks. Last month, the Royal Marines briefed MPs on the Russian threat, with one attendee saying the Marines were 'champing at the bit' to seize a ship. The US recently seized the Marinera tanker in the north Atlantic with British help after it was re-registered as Russian during pursuit.
Russian complaints were muted after the US seizure, but a UK or European-led operation could provoke a stronger response, Meade warned. Risks could be reduced if a seizure occurred away from the Baltic or Arctic. In late January, France detained the Grinch oil tanker off Spain but later released it due to legal issues. UK Defence Secretary John Healey said Britain would host a meeting of Baltic and Nordic countries to discuss military options, suggesting seized oil could be sold to support Ukraine.
Russia produces about 10 million barrels of oil daily, with 5-6 million exported by sea, mostly to China and India. After the invasion of Ukraine, the west imposed sanctions and a price cap on Russian crude, prompting Moscow to spend $15bn on 400 ageing tankers to create a shadow fleet. These vessels are often poorly maintained, opaquely owned, underinsured and use false flags, making them vulnerable to seizure as stateless ships, though legal interpretations vary across Europe.
It remains unclear how much capturing one or two shadow fleet vessels would hurt Russia's economy. Since late November, seven shadow fleet tankers have been struck by drones, with Ukraine reportedly behind some attacks.
