Providing UK technology to allow the production of new cruise missiles inside Ukraine is a vote of confidence in Ukraine's medium-term future, according to Matthew Savill, RUSI's Director of Military Sciences. Writing for The Mirror, he says the move also probably supports the development of Ukraine's own missiles.
However, Savill warns the decision is not a substitute for continuing ongoing support. Ukraine faces another hard winter of heavy Russian aerial bombardment, even as Ukrainian forces on the ground have blunted Russian advances and begun to launch counter-attacks of their own.
Factory construction will take time
It will take time to construct and establish a new factory inside Ukraine under wartime conditions, as well as to start producing new missiles. Savill says it is very unlikely any will be produced in the next year at the earliest.
More immediately helpful might be understanding some of the sophisticated features that make Storm Shadow so precise and adapting them for Ukraine's own growing cruise missile production, used alongside their huge drone programme.
Urgent need for air defences
International support is needed urgently to deal with Russia's strikes on Ukraine's industry, infrastructure and civilian targets. The Russians use a mix of cruise and ballistic missiles and drones that are subject to ongoing upgrades: many are now jet-propelled and are better thought of as budget cruise missiles.
There is still a need for air defences, especially interceptors from the US, which can defeat ballistic missiles – and France has promised to support production of missiles similar to those used by the Royal Navy for defence.
Industrial production challenge
Ukraine will lose a game of industrial production that pits output of sophisticated interceptors against Russian missile production. So it needs to strike more Russian weapons before they are launched, and attack the military industrial facilities that produce them.
That means more rapid production like the UK's Project BRAKESTOP cruise missiles, intelligence support for Ukraine, and financial and technical support to its communications and weapons development so they can identify and attack these targets deep inside Russia.
Without this additional support, the decision on SCALP licensing will remain a gesture that is appreciated, but one that is only a token gesture in the context of the much bigger problems that Ukraine faces.
