US ground troops have arrived in the Middle East, providing President Donald Trump with the option to forcibly open the Strait of Hormuz, a key Iranian pressure point. Iran's control over the strait, through which a fifth of the world's oil normally passes, has driven oil prices above $100 a barrel. Trump has stated he is prepared to give diplomacy a chance, but also said he wants to 'take the oil in Iran'.
Military options include seizing territory or deploying a massive naval presence. Experts warn that even a limited ground incursion risks heavy casualties that could sink a presidency. Emma Salisbury of the Foreign Policy Research Institute believes Trump will escalate by capturing one of Iran's Gulf islands, predicting it 'will go horribly wrong' with many casualties.
Iran has threatened to carpet bomb its own territory to kill any American soldiers on its soil, according to diplomats. The speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, accused the US of seeking talks while planning a ground assault, stating, 'Our men are waiting for the arrival of the American soldiers on the ground to set them on fire.'
Half of a contingent of 5,000 marines arrived on Saturday, with 2,000 paratroopers due to follow. Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal, is the most obvious target. However, experts note the force is far short of the 150,000 troops used in the 2003 Iraq invasion, and Iran's territory is three times larger. US media report a third aircraft carrier is heading to the region, with consideration of sending another 10,000 soldiers.
Trump is also weighing a riskier mission to seize Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, requiring special operations forces. He told the Financial Times, 'Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don't. We have a lot of options.' Ruben Stewart of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said the deployment may be a show of force to strengthen the US negotiating position, as holding any island would be difficult for more than a few days.
Ground operations may not end the Iranian threat. Opening the strait would require naval escorts, minesweeping, and air support, needing many more resources. The situation remains tense as both sides prepare for potential conflict.
