European states have reported a striking spate of incursions into their airspace over the past fortnight, with Russian drones appearing over Poland and Romania, fighter jets in Estonian airspace, and aircraft buzzing a German naval frigate in the Baltic Sea. Unidentified drones also disrupted flights at Copenhagen and Oslo airports, with further incidents at other Danish airports. Russia has repeatedly denied responsibility, but the pattern fits Moscow's longer record of provocations and amounts to a notable escalation.
These operations may distract from Russia's slow progress in Ukraine, but more obviously they test military responses and political will. The reaction to 19 drones in Polish airspace highlighted gaps in readiness, while Denmark was forced to suspend flights for four hours and Poland spent millions scrambling jets. The incursions also test US intentions, coming after Donald Trump's red-carpet welcome for Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Trump suggested Ukraine could win back territory and that Nato should shoot down Russian aircraft, but officials view this as a 'hot take' rather than policy shift.
Nato members met at Estonia's request, but divisions remain over whether shooting down Russian planes would deter Moscow or escalate dangers. The incursions should be seen within Russia's multi-domain strategy, which also targets civilian infrastructure. Recent damage to undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, a Norwegian dam hacked by Russian operatives, and MI5 warnings about GRU-led arson and sabotage on British streets highlight broader security risks.
Ken McCallum, head of MI5, warned last October that the GRU is on a sustained mission to generate mayhem in Britain and Europe. He stressed that businesses and states must address vulnerabilities. The difficulties of establishing a unified response to the recent airspace incursions underscore the need for a comprehensive and coherent strategy to counter these broader threats.
