Russia would have to go "all-in" if it were to launch an incursion into Estonia, an expert has said. Speculation has emerged over recent days about whether the Kremlin could orchestrate a takeover of part of the Baltic country. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggested that Russian agents would take over major buildings in Narva. Experts also pointed out that long-range drones could be launched from Russia.
Limited incursion 'not enough'
Merili Arjakas, a research fellow at The International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) — a think tank in Estonia specialising in security, defence and foreign policy issues — and the editor-in-chief of foreign policy magazine Diplomaatia, told The Express: "Russia cannot expect that any such attack against Estonia or the Baltic states will remain limited, as if the European states had not learned anything from the annexation in Crimea and the war in Donbas, which led to the full-scale invasion eight years later.
"That is not to say that Russia is not an aggressive power or that Putin does not dream of the collapse of NATO. Rather, any incursion will face a strong and immediate response from us and our partners."
A small-scale operation would not be sufficient, Ms Arjakas suggested. She said: "Therefore, if I were Russia and I wanted to attack Estonia or the Baltics, I would go all-in, not think that any limited incursion to Narva or to other places would be enough.
NATO weaknesses exposed
"Fortunately for us, Russia has so far been careful to not create conditions for a large-scale confrontation with NATO. Its tolerance of such risk has certainly increased as they carry out more attacks that fall below the threshold for triggering Article 5.
"However, such asymmetric escalation is also characteristic of a weaker party, one that still deems it too risky to use conventional means."
Estonia is "taking the threat seriously", the specialist added, while also pointing major NATO weaknesses. "Our defence budget for 2026 is 5.4% of GDP (€2.4billion), with major spending on ammunition, medium-range air defence, HIMARS, UAVs, anti-tank systems and territorial defence," Ms Arjakas said.
"Similar investments have been done by Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, while Finland has long been a shining example of a country armed to the teeth and prepared to fight.
"There are vulnerabilities – particularly in defence against missiles and drones, as well as in terms of reinforcement and logistics in the event of a full-scale invasion. But these are not vulnerabilities unique to Estonia or the eastern flank; rather, they are shared by all NATO countries except the US.
Support for Ukraine key
"Our best way of avoiding a NATO-Russia war, whether it erupts here or elsewhere, is still to support Ukraine so the aggressor does not prevail there. Ukraine keeps Russian forces and resources tied down and degrades Russian military capacity, thereby not only fighting for its own survival and sovereignty but also acting as a shield for Europe."
