Russia has launched nuclear war games and deployed Iskander-M missiles into Belarus, positioning them on the doorstep of the European Union. Ukraine has responded by rushing troops to its northern border, while NATO has condemned the provocative moves as a serious threat.
Details of the Drills
Russia’s Ministry of Defence released a press statement and video footage to ensure the threat against Ukraine and its allies was unmistakable. The Kremlin-aligned news site Ria Novosti reported: “Since May 18, Belarus has begun training in the combat use of nuclear weapons and their provision by military units. It involves the Strategic Missile Forces, the Northern and Pacific Fleets, the Long-Range Aviation Command, as well as part of the forces of the Leningrad and Central Military Districts.”
The drills include the Yars intercontinental ballistic missile, though it remains unclear whether the nuclear-capable missiles have been loaded with actual warheads. When asked about the potential consequences of a Russian nuclear attack, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated: “Well, [Russia] knows if that happens, the reaction is devastating.”
Previous Warnings and Belarusian Denials
Previous nuclear threats from Russia during its war in Ukraine have been met with personal warnings from allied intelligence services. According to European sources, Russian generals and senior officers likely involved in nuclear operations were contacted individually and told in “graphic and aggressive terms” that they “would not survive” any attempt to use nuclear weapons.
Belarus’s Ministry of Defence insisted the war games were not intended to threaten any other nation. “Exercises for military units on the combat deployment of nuclear weapons and nuclear support have begun,” it said. “The aim of the exercises is to improve the level of personnel training, verify the readiness of weapons, military and special equipment for task execution, and organise combat deployment from unplanned areas.”
The statement added: “During the exercises, in coordination with the Russian side, it is planned to practise the delivery of nuclear munitions and their preparation for use.”
Ukraine’s Response
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed scepticism, stating before the drills that Russia was trying to draw Belarus deeper into the war. “We know that additional contacts have taken place between the Russians and Aleksandr Lukashenko, aimed at persuading him to join new Russian aggressive operations,” he said. “In particular, Russia is considering plans for operations to the south and north of Belarusian territory – either against the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction in Ukraine or against one of the NATO countries directly from the territory of Belarus.”
Ukraine is reinforcing its northern border and deploying forces to protect its most northern flank from infiltrators, a route first used by Russia during its failed 2022 assault on Kyiv. Under increasing pressure on eastern battlefields, where Russian forces are losing around 35,000 men each month, the Kremlin has resorted to nuclear threats as it did during its dramatic retreat in 2022.
Scale of the Exercises
The Russian Defence Ministry claimed the exercises involve 64,000 personnel, more than 7,800 pieces of military equipment, including over 200 missile-launch systems, more than 140 aircraft, 73 surface vessels, and 13 submarines – eight of which are strategic missile submarines. Belarus’s Ministry of Defence added that missile units performed simulated launches at designated targets, which could include Kyiv, as well as NATO members Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, all sharing borders with Belarus. Iskander-M missiles can reach targets in these nations, with Poland being particularly vulnerable if missiles are deployed to southern Belarus.
