US intelligence reports have raised new concerns that Russia could provoke a NATO nation with an attack this fall, according to the Wall Street Journal. Officials initially believed an attack wouldn't happen because Russia is preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, but Putin isn't happy with how the war is going.
Baltic region and Poland seen as likely targets
Lithuania's defence minister echoed these concerns, saying: 'The Kremlin, Putin, needs a new escalation, some kind of new victory, and in this case the Baltic region and Poland are the closest targets.'
Just days ago, a drone loaded with explosives was found near a Ukrainian cargo plane in Germany. In late July, a Russian cruise missile left a crater 33 feet wide in NATO territory when it landed in Poland. The landing site was discovered by Polish authorities alongside scattered debris after reports of an explosion near the south-east village of Tarnawa-Kolonia.
Previous incidents and warnings
Fighter jets were scrambled, but Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk said there was no immediate danger as the missile fell in an uninhabited area. In late 2025, a report from German Intelligence warned of a potential 'test attack' against NATO from Russian forces. The German Federal Intelligence Service cited preparation from Russia's government for a 'large-scale war' against NATO as tensions with the West reach a boiling point.
A retired British Army general also warned the UK might have less than two years to prepare for a war with Russia. General Sir Richard Shirreff thinks Russian tanks will 'roll across the border into Estonia and Latvia'. Writing for MailOnline, he said: 'Within four hours they are approaching the Estonian capital of Tallinn. The British-led Enhanced Forward Battle Group in Estonia puts up brief resistance but takes heavy losses before being overwhelmed and forced to withdraw.'
Potential retaliatory strikes
Russia could fire its missiles at RAF bases in England and other targets in Western European countries, which launch retaliatory strikes on Russian energy and military infrastructure while sending reinforcements to the Baltic states.
