Military experts have warned that Vladimir Putin could order attacks on towns or cities in NATO countries within months, as Russia continues to test the alliance's resolve with probing actions and hybrid warfare.
Russian Provocations Increase
Russian cruise missiles have landed in Poland, and drones have flown into Romania, heightening concerns over the Kremlin's intentions towards European allies. These incidents come as Russia struggles to secure its objectives in Ukraine, leading analysts to consider whether Putin might escalate against NATO members.
Philip Ingram, a former British Army colonel, told the Daily Mail: "Putin is already striking Europe and NATO on a weekly basis. It is no accident we are seeing drones with explosives at a German airport in Leipzig, unidentified drones over German, Danish and US military bases, and some critical infrastructure sites."
Hybrid Tactics and Article 5
NATO's 32 members are bound by Article 5, which treats an attack on any member as an attack on all. Ingram predicted that Russian attacks "will probably increase," as Putin pushes the threshold for an Article 5 response to its "political limit."
Former British Army officer Hamish de Bretton-Gordon suggested Putin might consider a "small incursion" into Latvia or Estonia, noting that he is "already targeting us with hybrid warfare - cyber and espionage."
Baltic States and Poland on Alert
Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania have strengthened border defences against Russia and Belarus. Lithuania directs 5.3 percent of GDP to defence, the highest among NATO members. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda warned of "targeted kinetic operations that are very likely to be directed against critical infrastructure."
Western fighter jets have been scrambled three times in recent weeks to intercept drones, with a 250 per cent increase in scrambles in July compared to a year ago. NATO's Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum posted: "The numbers do not lie."
Potential Incursion Plans
Washington has warned that the Kremlin could be planning an armed incursion into Poland to test NATO's response, potentially targeting vital infrastructure. Polish security experts have also warned of possible small-scale troop movements across the border.
Natia Seskuria, a senior research fellow at RUSI, believes Putin would likely use a "hybrid attack that falls below the Article 5 threshold," including sabotage, airspace violations, and cyberattacks. She said: "Moscow has already deployed a range of such tactics... to probe allied resolve and map the practical limits of the alliance's response."
Recent Attacks and Continued Conflict
The warnings come amid ongoing lethal attacks. A Ukrainian drone strike on Monday killed at least 13 people and wounded 39 in the Russian city of Nizhnekamsk, targeting an oil refinery. Russia has accused Ukraine of terrorism, while Ukraine says it aims to bring the war home to Russians.
On Sunday, three people were killed in a Russian attack on Kharkiv, and five were killed in a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's Belgorod region.
