Reports indicate that President Vladimir Putin could authorize an attack on a NATO ally within weeks, testing the alliance's resolve. This comes as Russia faces catastrophic economic problems, recruitment issues, and military losses estimated at 1.4 million troops dead or injured.
Kremlin's Stance
Kremlin doctrine and Putin's nature suggest retreat is not an option, given the poor optics it would create domestically and internationally. There are rumblings of dissent in Moscow, and Putin may view himself as backed into a corner, a position of his own making.
Poland and the Baltic States have warned for months about a potential Russian attack, with some suggesting a 'false flag' assault. The latest reports are more serious, indicating Putin might give the go-ahead for an attack involving Russian troops, though the exact location remains unclear.
Testing NATO
Putin aims to test NATO's resolve, reaction times, cohesion, and military organization to maintain leverage. He wants to know what he can get away with without provoking consequences beyond sanctions and diplomatic furore.
A major cyber attack is possible due to deniability, but an on-ground incursion is also a possibility. Historical actions by Russian special forces, such as the Salisbury attack in 2018 and the Litvinenko poisoning in 2006, demonstrate their capabilities. Regular troops have committed war crimes in Ukraine, and mercenary groups like Wagner have acted across Syria and Africa.
NATO's Response
NATO countries are investing heavily in the war in Ukraine, and an arms race is underway following US insistence that Europe must defend itself against Russia. This has triggered Kremlin action, despite the fact that Russia's invasion prompted NATO's re-arming.
Many believe Putin may have been misled about the war's progress. A former CIA officer noted that despots often don't receive bad news because advisors are too nervous to deliver it, and they may tell the boss what he wants to hear.
Potential Consequences
The pressure Putin perceives from NATO's support of Ukraine is of his own doing, as is the European arms race. An armed provocation on Polish soil or elsewhere would reveal the consequences, and Putin may think he can get away with it.
The momentum towards Kremlin aggression towards Eastern Europe seems unstoppable, given Putin's aim to recreate the Soviet empire. Until NATO responds physically, the Russian bully will keep provoking, and the outcome could be either the end of Putin's presidency or a wider war.
