Poland and Lithuania are drawing up evacuation plans amid increasing concerns of an attack by Russia, fuelling fears of a wider conflict. The European allies are developing procedures, logistics, and infrastructure, including escape routes through the Suwałki Gap.
Strategic corridor at risk
The strategic corridor is around 40 miles wide at its narrowest point and is NATO’s only land connection between the Baltic states and the rest of the alliance. Nicknamed NATO’s “Achilles heel,” the gap sits between Vladimir Putin’s heavily militarised Kaliningrad exclave and his ally Alexander Lukashenko’s Belarus. It is feared the Kremlin may launch an attack here.
If Russian and Belarusian troops were to seize or blockade it during a conflict, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia could be cut off from allied land reinforcements, and a full-blown conflict with Moscow could begin. If Putin were to move his forces from Belarus across the gap to Kaliningrad, he could isolate Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from allies in central and western Europe.
Evacuation framework being developed
Vilnius and Warsaw are now working on an agreement to provide a detailed evacuation framework, the Lithuanian National Crisis Management Centre said. Vilmantas Vitkauskas, the head of Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Centre, said: “Procedures, logistics, and infrastructure capabilities are being analysed together with colleagues from Poland, and the plan itself should be developed once an agreement is reached between the two countries.”
The plans will also facilitate the evacuation of residents from Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia across the Polish border. A detailed plan is to be drawn up once Poland and Lithuania reach an appropriate agreement.
Drills and warnings
The preparations are being undertaken as part of Lithuania’s “Vyčio Skliautas 2026” exercises, which commenced on September 25 to assess nationwide drills testing responses to potential threats like hybrid war, cyberattacks and sabotage. Around 20 Polish officials travelled to Lithuania, and some 3,000 officials and around 1,000 volunteers are involved in the drills, which are set to last until October 2.
Earlier this month, Poland’s prime minister warned that the next few months will bring “very intensive actions” from Russia, which could launch “hybrid drone or missile strikes.” He said that an attack on Polish territory could not be ruled out. Such attacks could be intended to test NATO’s willingness to invoke Article 5, which states that an armed attack against a NATO ally is legally considered as an attack against all 32 members of the alliance.
