A nightmare scenario is haunting eastern European capitals since Donald Trump’s return to the White House: what if Russia attacks and the United States does not join the fight? The question, rarely posed in public, received an evasive answer from US undersecretary of state Thomas DiNanno in Tallinn in mid-May. Asked directly whether American troops would defend the Baltic states against a Russian invasion, he shifted uncomfortably and gave a meandering reply that omitted the word “yes”.
Politicians from the region typically sidestep the issue, insisting Washington’s commitment to NATO remains strong. “We shouldn’t pour fuel on the fire,” several ministers from the eastern flank repeated in interviews. Others admit the relationship is fraught but say a break is unthinkable, as the security gaps would be unbridgeable. Dovilė Šakalienė, a former Lithuanian defence minister, compared it to “a dysfunctional family where divorce is not an option”.
Privately, conversations are held in whispers: what would a response to a Russian attack look like without the US? Should Europe try to keep Trump on side or plan for Washington’s absence? One senior official described a sense of bemused disillusionment: “What do you do when your beloved father figure suddenly starts drinking and behaving incomprehensibly?”
The first warning came in February 2025, when US defence secretary Pete Hegseth told NATO allies that European security was no longer a US priority, urging Europe to pay for its own defence. “You can’t shoot values, you can’t shoot flags, you can’t shoot strong speeches,” he said. During lunch, German defence minister Boris Pistorius asked for a timetable for the US drawdown, a suggestion that upset many in the room.
