The outcome and duration of the war in the Middle East may be decided by a grim calculus based on the size of Iran’s drone and missile stocks versus vital air defence munitions held by the US, Israel and Gulf states, analysts and officials say.
Since Saturday, Iran and its proxies have launched more than 1,000 strikes across almost a dozen countries. With its antiquated air force unable to compete, Tehran has relied on its arsenal of missiles and drones. The geographical extent of the retaliatory attacks has made the conflict the widest in the region since the second world war.
Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, described the conflict as “a bit of a salvo competition”. “The question is who has the deeper magazines of key weapons, and the big unknown is how deep Iran inventories are,” she said.
Analysts suggest Iran may be seeking to preserve its reserves of missiles, or is simply unable to fire more. “Iran has fewer weapons that can range Israel than hit the Persian Gulf, and a lot of drones heading to Israel are being intercepted,” said Pettyjohn.
The United Arab Emirates issued a statement rebutting reports that it was running out of interceptor missiles, saying it “maintains a robust strategic stockpile of munitions”. On Monday, the UAE said it had destroyed 161 out of 174 ballistic missiles launched toward the country.
Tal Inbar, an Israel-based senior research fellow at the Missile Defence Advisory Alliance, noted that during a 12-day war with Iran last summer, crucial weapons in Israel ran low. “In previous wars and clashes, the duration has been determined in part by the amount of [air defence missiles] that we had… You can never have enough interceptors,” he said.
