Author and military historian David Swift has named Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as the three countries Russia is most likely to invade, as tensions in eastern Europe intensify. He said the three Baltic states are the most vulnerable because of their geography, small size and populations.
Why the Baltic states are at risk
Speaking as NATO jets were scrambled in Poland and Romania amid Russian strikes near Poland's border with Ukraine, Mr Swift said Lithuania is particularly exposed. He noted the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad lies to its west and Belarus to its east, making it vulnerable to "some kind of deniable action by paramilitaries or forces not overtly wearing Russian uniforms, as with the 'Little Green Men' who invaded the Donbas in 2014."
Mr Swift ruled out Poland as a likely target, saying it "is much stronger and I imagine Putin wouldn't want to test it yet." Lithuania and Poland are reportedly planning cross-border evacuation plans for the Baltic states.
War register proposal
The war register scheme was suggested at the Liberal Democrats' event in Brighton last week. Unlike conscription, it is a voluntary database where people express willingness to support their country during an attack.
Mr Swift said a serious response from the British government would follow if there were "something explicit and obvious, like ground troops or airstrikes against a NATO country." He said many people would sign up for a war register, adding: "I think it could be a useful way of mobilising people for non-military tasks, although presumably it would largely recruit from more middle class people, as with those offering refuge to Ukrainians, etc. In fact it's no coincidence the Lib Dems are pushing this."
Conscription exemptions
Mr Swift also commented on who might be exempt if conscription were reintroduced. He said: "Since there is such an urgent need to rebuild Britain's defence industries and industrial capacity, I would expect that people in these important occupations would be exempt. Or even that people could be 'conscripted' into working in these industries. Military conscription would target unemployed graduates - this would be very popular with lots of people."
