The new Prime Minister has refused to commit to predecessor Keir Starmer's £80 billion annual target of 3% GDP by 2030, a figure that would require an extra £10 billion each year. John Healey, who resigned as Defence Secretary with a claim the country was not safe, now faces a deeply personal and political dilemma over military spending.
The respected Institute for Government think-tank warned that sticking with Starmer's Nato 3.5% goal would see spending soar to £140 billion by 2035, requiring a £40 billion increase in today's prices. That is equivalent to two-thirds of the schools budget or the combined budgets of the Home Office and Ministry of Justice.
Trade-offs and Waste
Unless the Prime Minister and Chancellor find a significant source of funding, trade-offs will be necessary. Colonel Al Carns, who resigned alongside Healey, described Ministry of Defence waste as “unbelievable.” Burnham is urged to note that Britain is already the world's sixth biggest defence spender and near the top of Nato in share of national wealth.
The PM is expected to avoid disowning Starmer's targets as he attempts to fill a £5 billion black hole. Healey could mention that GCHQ believes Russia has lost 500,000 men in Ukraine, leaving Putin's country drained. One of Burnham's new ministers described the percentage targets as madness.
Farage's Prison Plan and Hypocrisy
Nigel Farage proposed pop-up “Nightingale” prisons on Ministry of Defence land to ease overcrowding, a plan critics say is hypocritical given Reform's past opposition to housing asylum seekers in army camps. Burnham is reviewing early release to free cells, inheriting a difficult choice from the Conservatives.
Farage's own controversies include a reported secret donation, ties to “Posh George” Cottrell, and the freezing of Reform's bank account by Arbuthnot Latham over potentially illegal donations during the election.
Natalie Fleet Overlooked
Burnham did not find a new role for Natalie Fleet, the Bolsover MP who was groomed and raped at age 15 and later raped in her sleep. Despite her heroic public speaking about her traumas, she was not reappointed as a minister. The article argues that Fleet, a working class figure, should have been kept in a post to represent ignored women.
Riots and Domestic Abuse Links
Most thugs arrested after the jailing of Henry Nowak's murderer had previous domestic abuse reports. Two in five arrested during the summer 2024 disturbances after the Southport murders also had such reports. Hard Right and Far Right politicians are accused of inciting the rioters, while remaining silent on the arrest of Andrew and Tristan Tate on serious charges.
Going Up and Going Down
Steve Rotheram, Liverpool City Region Mayor, is praised as an important ally for Burnham. Grant Shapps, blocked from standing again as a Conservative candidate by Kemi Badenoch for not being extreme enough, is suggested to reapply under his pseudonym Michael Green.
