Deep beneath Charing Cross underground station, in the disused terminus of the Jubilee line, a secret Nato command bunker has been discreetly operational this week. Dozens of mostly British soldiers are engaged in a war game defending Estonia from a Russian invasion in 2030, unbeknownst to the commuters and tourists bustling above. The secret chambers are hidden behind two sets of normally locked, metal double doors. A red glow at the bottom of the escalator is the first sign of troops below, followed by mocked-up newspaper covers pasted over ageing adverts, blaring that a British Nato force has deployed to Estonia in response to a Russian massing of troops on the border.
Exercise Arrcade Strike and the Drone Gap
The exercise, named Arrcade Strike, is designed to demonstrate the strategic reserve corps that could be ready by 2030, according to Lt Gen Mike Elviss, commander of the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps. In a video briefing, he stated, "The scenario you are about to see is very deliberately set in 2030 because that is where we see the threat from Russia to be at its most acute." Military analysts estimate that if the war in Ukraine ends, a remilitarised Russia could be ready to attack Europe again. The aim is to show Moscow that Nato is operationally ready to defend its most exposed Baltic members. However, a more important audience is in Westminster, where the Ministry of Defence has been locked in a funding battle with the Treasury for months.
Remodelling the British army will require billions in investment, particularly in drones. It is estimated that it will cost £50 million a year to get the arms industry building simple one-way attack drones, familiar in Ukraine, and £500 million a year to develop more sophisticated models, such as armed driverless vehicles. If a full-scale war broke out in eastern Europe tomorrow, the British military would run out of drones in less than a week, able to launch only a few hundred a day. The British army is between 80 and 90% short of the drones it needs for reconnaissance, air defence, or attack.
The Secret Bunker and Simulated War
Three junior defence ministers visited the secret bunker on Wednesday, though the secretary of state, John Healey, was tied up on official business and visiting Estonia, where the bulk of the UK 4th brigade is now deployed as part of a related exercise. The command centre can house 500 people, transmitting 10 terabytes of data a day, equivalent to three months of Netflix. Chairs, computers, and screens crowd the underground hall, spilling onto a platform: a temporary Ukraine-style bunker ready for a simulated war influenced by both the war in Ukraine and the recent US attack on Iran.
Journalists attending were invited to put on virtual reality headsets supplied by US technology company Anduril (US vice-president JD Vance is an investor), which display a 3D model of the battle plan. In this glossy, computerised vision of war, the first waves of drones are lost, but Russian positions are quickly located and eliminated. The operation is explicit: a Nato force would use thousands of drones to lead a counterattack against Russian forces, revealing and knocking out enemy air defence, other positions, and headquarters with the help of fighter jets and artillery all the way to St Petersburg from the border. The rehearsals are conducted "because the adversary is watching," Elviss said.
Artificial Intelligence and Future Warfare
One intention is to visualise the British army's project Asgard, a digital communication system that uses artificial intelligence (Hivemind, from US firm Shield AI) on the battlefield, linking any surveillance node to any weapon. The key purpose of artificial intelligence is to speed up decision-making, including target acquisition, from 72 hours to two hours, following the lead of Israeli and US militaries. A virtual target is identified, and the exercise includes a new deep strike unit able to hit targets 90 miles away with M270 artillery, meaning it could bomb Leicester if the rocket launcher was in Charing Cross.
Three bombing options are offered from a drop-down menu, chosen with the help of artificial intelligence based on weapons available. An icon is selected, a new screen loads, and towards the bottom, a red flashing fire button appears. Nato's military chief, Gen Alexus Grynkewich, an American, applauded the British efforts "to transform into an AI-fuelled command post" in a video message. If the artificial intelligence has made a mistake during Arrcade Strike, it is not something anybody appears aware of, though this is a demonstration.
This is war in 2026 as well as 2030: a high-speed, hi-tech means of dealing death from a distance from the relative safety of deep underground. Meanwhile, at the Ministry of Defence, early hints suggest that next month, several billion more will be found to increase the defence budget to close an £18 billion funding gap and begin paying for the British army of the near future.
