Britain must be ready for Vladimir Putin's retaliation over support for Ukraine, experts have warned. Former defence minister Tobias Ellwood said Russia "will seek to exact a price" after the UK agreed to hand over blueprints to allow Kyiv to build its own long-range missiles. He spoke out after Kremlin adviser Andrei Fedorov said he could not "100% exclude" the prospect of "semi-military" action against Britain. The close adviser to the Russian leader suggested UK factories producing drones for Ukraine could come under attack from "unknown sources".
Grey zone attacks predicted
Mr Ellwood predicted Britain will face more "grey zone attacks", which are hostile actions that occur between peace and war. The former soldier said: "Given Putin's reputation for retaliation there is no doubt Britain will be subject to greater grey zone attacks in the coming weeks. He will seek to exact a price for the UK's significant upgrade in military support."
"Whilst standing firm with Ukraine is the right call, our homeland sub-threshold defences are woefully out of date. As we will soon learn," he added.
Sabotage threat from Russia
Bob Seely, an ex-Tory MP and author of The New Total War, added: "This threat fits into a wider pattern where Russia won't seek to strike directly or strike militarily in a conventional military sense, but will see to find individuals in the UK and Europe to conduct basic sabotage or vandalism."
Dr Seely, also a former soldier who served in Afghanistan and Libya, said: "In Ukraine, they may seek to target UK-linked sites in or individuals. I suspect we will see an escalation of sorts, and we need to be aware that Putin's threshold for dangerous acts is increasing."
Kremlin adviser's warning
Mr Fedorov's threat came after the UK agreed to share long-range missile blueprints with Ukraine amid Russia's brutal ongoing invasion as Andy Burnham made his first visit to the war-torn country as Prime Minister. The Kremlin adviser told BBC Newsnight that "sooner or later, there might be not only verbal, but maybe some visible reaction from Russia towards the UK".
He said: "There are different discussions how it should look like – it might be so-called technical reaction, maybe some hackers attack from unknown source, not from official level of course. There might be different political steps and I cannot exclude 100% that there might be some semi-military, for example."
Pressed to define "semi-military", he said: "For example, something might happen with enterprises, with the factories which are producing drones for Ukraine, etc etc." Asked whether this meant British factories in Britain being attacked militarily by Russia, Mr Fedorov added: "They could be attacked, not by Russia, but by… from unknown sources."
Call for increased defence spending
The Tories said the threat shows why the UK must bump up defence spending to 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2029. Shadow defence secretary James Cartlidge said: "We utterly condemn Russia's threats against the UK and stand with the Government in their continued steadfast support for Ukraine. While we should be wary of responding to Russian propaganda, the best way to deter aggression is to be prepared for it. That's why the new PM must commit to spending 3% of GDP on defence by the end of this parliament."
The UK's plan to share long-range missile blueprints with Ukraine also sparked a similar warning from Mr Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov. He said the move would add "fuel to the fire" of the ongoing conflict, which broke out in 2022 when the Russian President launched his botched invasion. Mr Peskov said: "Britain is involved in this war on the side of the Kyiv regime. Britain methodically and regularly adds fuel to the fire."
But Mr Burnham hit back during his visit to Ukraine on Monday, saying: "Who started the fire? That's the question, isn't it?" The Prime Minister, who entered No 10 last month, reiterated there would be "no change in the UK's steadfast support" for Kyiv as he met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He will join other European leaders lobbying US President Donald Trump on support for Ukraine as it defends against Russia's onslaught at a planned meeting in New York next month.
The UK will provide Kyiv with blueprints for British components used in the French-produced Scalp missile as Paris looks at setting up assembly lines for the weapon in Ukraine. The Scalp weapon is a version of the British Storm Shadow missile, which the UK has already provided to Ukraine, and can be used to hit more targets within Russia. Meanwhile, Ukraine has handed over what officials have called a "goldmine" of battlefield data. Britain is being given access to Ukraine's "Avengers" AI database as part of a deal to develop AI-powered solutions to national security challenges in both countries. During his visit, Mr Burnham also urged Ukraine's allies to send more interceptor missiles as Russia steps up its bombardment to capitalise on Kyiv's dwindling stocks.
