Labour is on track to lose control of Birmingham City Council in the upcoming local elections, as pro-Palestine independent candidates gain significant support. This shift means Britain's second-largest city could become, according to some experts, a 'microcosm of what we could see in 2029' after the next general election.
Concerns Over 'Sectarian Politics'
Former Labour MP for Dudley North, Lord Austin, described the situation as a 'disaster', stating that 'sectarian politics' have 'poisoned community relations in the city'. Labour has held a dominant position in Birmingham since 1984, but its popularity has waned due to the actions of the Labour-run city council, which has effectively bankrupted the city. The widely publicised bin strike, now over a year old, has left litter piling up in the streets.
Independent Candidates Gain Ground
In 2022, Labour won 65 out of 101 seats on the city council. However, around 40 pro-Palestinian independents are now standing for election, many of whom are expected to win, emboldened by the Green Party's victory in Gorton and Denton, Manchester, after campaigning on a pro-Gaza platform. These independent candidates are contesting traditionally Labour wards with large Muslim populations, such as Small Heath (86% Muslim) and Alum Rock (84% Muslim). Villa Park constituency, where a national extremism debate erupted after Jewish Maccabi Tel Aviv fans were banned from attending a match last November, is nearly three-quarters Muslim.
Lawyer Akhmed Yakoob, co-founder of the pro-Gaza Independent Candidates Alliance, stated that Labour has taken Muslim votes 'for granted for decades'. He noted that the Muslim community in Birmingham has historically voted en masse for Labour, but this is now changing. 'This is the first time ever in my lifetime I've seen Labour have an uphill battle in the inner-city areas. It was like it was their God-given right to get the votes. But not anymore,' he said.
Shakeel Afsar, Yakoob's co-founder and a property developer, led a campaign against a Birmingham primary school where pupils were given books featuring cross-dressing children and gay families. Afsar emphasised that local elections are about local issues but argued that he and others are trying to 'defend their community', which is '99.9 per cent Muslim or ethnic minority'. He warned that Muslim voters would not support the Greens if they endorsed transgender ideology or drug legalisation.
Harris Khaliq, an IT project manager and independent candidate for Ward End (three-quarters Muslim), claimed that Palestine is not the 'sole purpose of his campaign'. However, while handing out 'stickers for Palestine' to young primary schoolchildren, he said: 'I speak about it, I pray for it, and I care about it very, very dearly.' He defended the distribution of such material, stating that children 'connect' to the events in Gaza. 'There's people at such a delicate age growing up seeing a genocide and hearing about genocide... You've seen children as young as six or seven, how they are running towards stickers for Palestine, because that's how much they connect to it.' He added that Palestine is a driving factor in both Manchester and Birmingham.
Council's Financial Crisis
In 2023, the debt-ridden city council hit rock-bottom after a series of crises, leading to government commissioners being sent in to manage its finances. In a deeply unpopular move, the council was authorised by the government to levy an extra 10% on council tax for two years to offset a staggering £760 million deficit, much of it due to mismanagement.
Impact on Jewish Community
Birmingham's small Jewish community of around 2,000 has felt increasingly alienated and under threat, with security heightened since the pro-Gaza movement escalated. Jewish entrepreneur Simone Schehtman expressed fears that Gaza would dominate council meetings instead of local issues if independent councillors were elected, which would be 'intimidating and threatening to Jewish communities'. He said: 'This is not a place that you would now want to be building a family or coming in. It's not only nothing to do with Birmingham, it's pretty much got nothing to do with the UK.'
The vote in Birmingham is also expected to see gains by Reform UK and the Conservatives in some areas. Tony Travers from the London School of Economics suggested that Birmingham could become 'a political patchwork quilt' and a 'microcosm' of how Britain might look in 2029.
