Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has published the long-delayed defence investment plan (Dip), a £15 billion package funded by cutting road and energy projects. The plan will increase annual defence spending from £54 billion to £80 billion by 2029, reversing what Starmer described as the “corrosive hollowing out” of the armed forces.
Funding and Trade-offs
Speaking at a drone company in Berkshire, Starmer said: “When the world is arming and aggression is rising, the best way to avoid war is to prepare for it. The best way to defend is to deter, to have the strength to make your adversaries think again before they act.” Chancellor Rachel Reeves, also at the event, confirmed the extra money came from “reprioritising spending” across government, specifically by raiding Whitehall capital budgets.
Starmer acknowledged “no easy answers” but argued that slashing frontline services like health and education would weaken the nation. Instead, the Dip reallocates capital budgets by “one penny in every pound,” maintaining public investment at the highest sustained levels since the 1970s. As a result, “some capital projects, for example on roads and energy, which are important but not immediately vital, will no longer go ahead as planned.”
Political Context and Delays
The Dip was originally due last year after the strategic defence review but was delayed by Whitehall wrangling. Former defence secretary John Healey quit earlier this month, claiming he was only offered £13.5 billion. His successor, Dan Jarvis, secured the extra £1.5 billion from the Treasury. The announcement may be one of Starmer's final acts as prime minister, with Andy Burnham expected to replace him within weeks.
NATO Commitments and Spending Targets
The UK has committed to NATO's target of spending 3.5% of GDP on defence by 2035. The Dip will raise spending to 2.7% of GDP in 2027-28, putting the government on track, officials claim. Over four years, total defence investment will reach £298 billion, including the extra £15 billion. However, this falls short of the £28 billion military chiefs reportedly requested.
Key Measures in the Dip
- £64 billion for renewing the UK's nuclear deterrent, including new submarines, a sovereign warhead, and F-35A fighters capable of carrying nuclear bombs.
- More than £8 billion for the global combat air programme (Gcap) with Japan and Italy to build next-generation jets for the RAF.
- Around £5 billion for a “drone transformation” of the armed forces, drawing on lessons from the war in Ukraine.
- Some £11 billion on munitions and weapons to build stockpiles of shells, bombs, and missiles.
Reactions and Criticism
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte welcomed the plan as a “good step” towards the 3.5% target, saying: “Stronger UK defence makes us all safer.” But General Sir Richard Barrons, co-author of the 2025 strategic defence review, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the plan is “not going to crack the issue” of properly funding the armed forces. “We're not keeping up with our allies, we're certainly not keeping up with our enemies,” he said, adding that the US is no longer guaranteed to defend European security against Russia.
Andrew Fox from the Henry Jackson Society warned of a “real danger” that the wrong lessons are being learned from Ukraine, focusing too much on drones. “Drones complement tanks, warships, combat aircraft, air defence, logistics and industrial capacity – they do not replace them,” he said.
Starmer said the UK would be ready to fight Vladimir Putin's Russia by 2030 if necessary, drawing lessons from Ukraine and Iran. “We've learned a lot from Ukraine, actually also from Iran as well, about the capability that is needed in order to confront countries like Russia,” he added.
