Chinese President Xi Jinping raised the concept of the Thucydides Trap during his meeting with US President Donald Trump in Beijing, invoking an ancient Greek historian to address modern superpower tensions. The term, derived from Thucydides' account of the Peloponnesian War, suggests that when a rising power threatens an established one, conflict often ensues.
What Is the Thucydides Trap?
The Thucydides Trap refers to the idea that a rising power's challenge to an established hegemon frequently leads to war. Thucydides wrote: "It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable." This concept has been widely discussed in foreign policy circles, including by Trump's former strategist Steve Bannon. In the modern context, it implies that China's ascent provokes anxiety and potential conflict with the United States.
Xi Jinping's Remarks
In his opening remarks on Thursday, Xi asked: "Can China and the United States transcend the so-called 'Thucydides Trap' and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations?" This reference to the Peloponnesian War, a decades-long conflict between Athens and Sparta that began in 431 BC, served as a warning against hegemonic rivalry. Observers noted that Xi has used the term for years, but its deployment during Trump's visit may have foreshadowed his stance on Taiwan.
Taiwan Tensions
Xi later warned Trump that mishandling the Taiwan issue could lead to conflict between the two nations. "The Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations," Xi said, referring to the self-governing island that China claims. "If mishandled, the two nations could collide or even come into conflict, pushing the entire China-US relationship into a highly perilous situation." However, at a state banquet, Xi struck a conciliatory tone, stating that "achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and making America great again can totally go hand in hand."
Trump's Response
Trump responded on social media, noting that Xi had "very elegantly referred to the United States as perhaps being a declining nation." But Trump clarified that this did not apply to his administration, posting: "Two years ago, we were, in fact, a Nation in decline. Now, the United States is the hottest Nation anywhere in the world, and hopefully our relationship with China will be stronger and better than ever before!"
The Thucydides Trap remains a key concept in understanding US-China relations, with Xi's remarks highlighting both the risks and potential for cooperation between the two superpowers.
