The United States has reportedly drafted a 14-point memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the two-month conflict with Iran and restarting negotiations on a nuclear deal. However, several critical issues remain unresolved, raising concerns that the agreement could lead back to square one after thousands of deaths and economic devastation.
Background of the Conflict
Since the war began on 28 February, thousands have died in strikes across the Middle East. Global trade has been severely disrupted, causing massive economic damage and pushing millions into poverty. Violence has also spread regionally, particularly between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The latest US proposal could see Washington exit the conflict with key questions still unanswered.
The One-Page Memorandum
The new offer is based on a one-page memorandum of understanding, expected to provide a framework for another month of detailed negotiations on the lingering nuclear issue. Iran has yet to respond, but initial impressions suggest that Washington has scaled back its demands compared to the start of the war.
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz
The 14-point memo would declare an end to the war and usher in a 30-day period for negotiations on a comprehensive plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, limit Iran's nuclear programme, and lift US sanctions. A US official indicated that both US and Iranian blockades would be gradually lifted over 30 days. Delegations would meet in Islamabad or Geneva for fresh talks on Iran's nuclear programme. If talks collapse, US forces could restore the blockade or resume military action.
The Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway carrying about 20% of global oil and gas, was closed without Iranian interference before the conflict. Iran has sought a post-war deal allowing it to enforce tolls on commercial ships, but the US opposes this, threatening sanctions. The closure has driven up oil prices from $72 per barrel on 27 February to $99.33, fueling inflation worldwide.
Iranian Nuclear Enrichment
US negotiators are now willing to consider a moratorium on uranium enrichment, suspending Iran's nuclear programme for several years before allowing limited enrichment for civilian use up to 3.67%. Iran's last offer proposed a 15-year freeze, with enrichment up to 3.6% and no stockpiles. Sources suggest a compromise of at least 12 years, with the US seeking 20.
This freeze would be tougher than the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreed in 2015, which Trump abandoned in 2018. The JCPOA cut gas centrifuges by two-thirds and forbade enrichment beyond 3.67% for 15 years, with stockpile limits of 300kg. After Trump withdrew, Iran abandoned limits and now has around 440kg of uranium enriched to 60%, close to weapons-grade. Critics argue the JCPOA traded temporary nuclear constraints for permanent sanctions relief.
Notably, on the day the war began, Oman announced a breakthrough where Iran had agreed to zero stockpiling and converting existing material into fuel. It is unclear whether the new memo addresses Iran's support for regional proxies or ballistic missiles.
Sanctions Relief for Tehran
The latest plan offers gradual lifting of sanctions and release of billions in frozen Iranian funds, but details on which sanctions would be removed are lacking. Sanctions relief has long been a US negotiating tool. In March, a 15-point plan offered limited relief and cooperation for a civilian nuclear industry. The US already lifted some oil sanctions in March to contain rising energy prices.
In February, Iran suggested diluting highly enriched uranium in return for lifting all financial sanctions. Since 1979, Iran has faced intermittent US sanctions relief. In 2013, limited relief and asset repatriation were offered in return for halting 20% enrichment and allowing inspections, leading to the 2015 JCPOA.
