President Donald Trump’s aides fear that the conflict in Iran could turn into a prolonged “Cold War-like” situation, with no immediate resolution in sight. The war has entered its eighth week, and while both sides are currently engaged in negotiations and airstrikes have ceased for the moment, Trump is unlikely to accept Tehran’s latest proposal to end hostilities. Officials speaking to Axios expressed concern that the United States could become mired in “a frozen conflict of no war and no deal.”
Trump’s Promise vs. Reality
At the outset of the conflict eight weeks ago, Trump assured the American public that the U.S. would not be entangled in a lengthy Middle Eastern war. However, with the largest American military presence in the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, critics have long warned that a quick resolution was improbable. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the president initially set a timeline of “four to five weeks” when Operation Epic Fury was announced on February 28. Trump added that the U.S. had the “capability to go far longer than that,” while Hegseth insisted that “this is not Iraq,” a conflict that lasted nearly nine years.
Political and Economic Stakes
With midterm elections just six months away and the war deeply unpopular among voters, several U.S. officials are growing anxious. “A frozen conflict is the worst thing for Trump politically and economically,” a source close to the president told Axios. Such a scenario would require American forces to remain in the Middle East for months longer, while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed under a U.S. blockade until one side concedes.
Trump is reportedly torn between launching fresh strikes on Iran and waiting to see the impact of financial sanctions, hoping they will pressure Tehran to abandon its nuclear weapons program. Five advisers close to the president indicated that Trump told one confidant that Iran’s leaders “understand is bombs.” The same adviser described the president as “frustrated but realistic,” adding, “He doesn't want to use force. But he's not backing down.”
Iran’s Proposal and Trump’s Red Lines
On Monday, Trump met with his national security team to review Iran’s latest proposal to end the war. The proposal reportedly included reopening the Strait of Hormuz and postponing discussions on Iran’s nuclear program. However, Trump’s core demand—that Iran must never obtain nuclear weapons—remains unchanged.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated on Monday, “What I will reiterate is that the president’s red lines with respect to Iran have been made very, very clear, not just to the American public, but also to them as well.” When asked about the proposal, she said, “I wouldn’t say they’re considering it. I would just say that there was a discussion this morning that I don’t want to get ahead of, and you’ll hear directly from the president, I’m sure, on this topic.”
