Hungary's Incoming Leader Eyes Polish Alliance to Rebuild EU Bridges
Péter Magyar, Hungary's newly elected prime minister, is actively pursuing a strengthened relationship with Poland's premier, Donald Tusk, to facilitate the renewal of Hungary's ties with the European Union following Viktor Orbán's lengthy tenure. Magyar's decisive electoral victory, coupled with a constitutional two-thirds majority in parliament, positions him to implement reforms more seamlessly than was possible in Poland, where opposition veto powers posed significant hurdles.
A Historic Partnership Forged in Shared Challenges
Since the fall of communism in 1989, Hungary and Poland have navigated similar political trajectories. Now, both nations are led by centre-right, pro-European figures tasked with reversing democratic backsliding and mending strained relations with the EU. On election night, a jubilant Tusk, calling from Korea, expressed his elation to Magyar, stating, "I'm so happy. I think I am even happier than you, you know?" The following morning, Tusk remarked to reporters, "First Warsaw, then Bucharest, Chișinău, and now Budapest. This part of Europe is showing that we are not condemned to corrupt and authoritarian rule." He added, visibly relieved, "A weight has been lifted off my shoulders, because I was worried until the very end."
Magyar reciprocated the goodwill, announcing at a press conference flanked by Hungarian and EU flags that he envisions a "special relationship" with Poland and has chosen Warsaw for his inaugural foreign visit. He also confirmed swift action against two former Polish ministers residing in Budapest to evade prosecution for alleged abuses of power during the rightwing Law and Justice (PiS) government, asserting they should not "go and buy furniture in Ikea, because they are not staying long."
Urgent EU Demands and Tight Deadlines
With the new parliament set to convene and Magyar to be sworn in on 9 May, coinciding with Europe Day, the partnership between Magyar and Tusk is poised to play a pivotal role in reintegrating Budapest into mainstream European politics. Once Magyar assumes Orbán's seat at the European Council, Tusk will become the most seasoned leader present, offering invaluable support in negotiations with the bloc. EU officials have already initiated informal talks with Magyar's incoming administration, pressing Hungary to lift its block on a €90bn loan to Ukraine and endorse new sanctions against Russia as early indicators of political realignment.
Hungary must also address several conditions related to institutional reforms, judiciary independence, anti-corruption measures, asylum laws, and academic freedoms. Behind the scenes, Polish and Hungarian officials are discussing how Poland's recent successes in reversing illiberal policies could be applied in Hungary. In 2023, Tusk's Civic Coalition unseated PiS and successfully unlocked billions in frozen EU funds, a model Hungary hopes to emulate. However, time is of the essence: Hungary must achieve its "super milestones" by the end of August to access an initial €10.4bn tranche, with €2.12bn already permanently lost.
Reform Challenges and Symbolic Breaks
Polish officials, speaking anonymously due to the confidential nature of the talks, emphasized that "promises will not be enough; they will have to actually change things - and quickly." One source noted, "There is always a political element to these talks, but there is no way around the fact that their paperwork will need to be in order." While Magyar's parliamentary majority should streamline reforms compared to Poland's experience, it will still "require work 24/7 to get it done on time."
Magyar has already urged Tamás Sulyok, a close Orbán ally and the Hungarian president, to resign or face removal, seeking a symbolic break from the previous regime. His commitment to join the European Public Prosecutor's Office (EPPO) and investigate corruption and fraud during Orbán's 16-year rule is viewed as a critical component of the transformation. Poland submitted its EPPO application on the first day of its new government, setting a precedent for swift action.
Lessons from Poland's Experience
Adam Bodnar, Poland's former justice minister, highlighted that pre-inauguration talks are not unusual, stating, "You don't really wait for day one of the government. We had some relations with the commission essentially for two weeks before the cabinet was formed, so I bet that Magyar's people are already on the line ... wondering how this can be done." He added that Hungary's two-thirds majority enables them to "actually deliver on all of it," unlike Poland, which had to devise "acrobatic solutions" due to political constraints.
However, Bodnar cautioned that some Polish challenges may resonate in Hungary, particularly regarding the lingering influence of officials entrenched during the illiberal era. "You can reform institutions, put in new judges, or hold competitions for top jobs, but in the end there still will be people who have been part of the system for these 16 years and cannot be replaced overnight," he explained. "So there is always a question of what effect [the Orbán era] will have on the mentality of state officials, prosecutors and judges."
