Nigel Farage's Reform UK party has overtaken the Conservatives in a national opinion poll for the first time, according to a YouGov survey. The poll, conducted after Rishi Sunak launched the Tory manifesto on Tuesday, shows Reform on 19%, up two points, while the Tories have fallen to 18%.
Speaking at an ITV debate, Farage said: “Just before we came on air we overtook the Conservatives in the national opinion polls. We are now the opposition to Labour.” The survey is the first to place Reform ahead of the Conservatives, marking a significant shift in the political landscape.
Anthony Wells, head of European political and social research at YouGov, noted the poll's importance, stating: “Obviously all polls have a margin of error, so we can’t conclude for certain that more voters now back Nigel Farage’s party over the Conservatives. But what it does make clear is that at the very least the Conservatives and Reform are at a very similar level of support to each other. That in itself is remarkable given how close we are to an election when we might otherwise have expected smaller parties’ votes to be squeezed.”
Overall, Labour retained a 19-point lead over the Conservatives, while the Liberal Democrats fell one point to 14%. The poll also found that 80% of Reform supporters believe a very large Labour majority would be bad for the country. Only 13% of voters think the Conservatives' plans would be good for them and their family, with 54% of Tory voters and 15% of Reform voters agreeing.
YouGov questioned more than 2,200 adults in an online poll on Wednesday and Thursday. The results underscore the growing challenge to the Conservatives from the right, with Reform now posing a direct threat to Tory seats in the upcoming general election.
